Red Sox-Rays: An Inside Look

Oct 10, 2008 - 10:19 AM By Tom Covill PA SportsTicker Assistant Baseball Editor

The American League East proved over the course of the regular season that it was the class of the majors. It's only fitting that two of its members will be fighting for the right to go to the World Series.

Instead of the usual Boston Red Sox-New York Yankees battle at the top of the division, the upstart Tampa Bay Rays took over first place at the All-Star break and never looked back, passing the Red Sox and earning home-field advantage for the American League Championship Series.

The playoffs have been the property of the Red Sox quite a bit over the last five years, however, and they won't give up the throne without a fight.

Below is a a preview of the ALCS matchup between Tampa Bay and Boston, which begins Friday at Tropicana Field.

Probable Pitchers (Rays first):

Game One: James Shields vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Game Two: Scott Kazmir vs. Josh Beckett

Game Three: Matt Garza vs. Jon Lester

Game Four: Andy Sonnanstine vs. Tim Wakefield

Probable Starters:

Tampa Bay

C Dioner Navarro

1B Carlos Pena

2B Akinori Iwamura

3B Evan Longoria

SS Jason Bartlett

LF Carl Crawford

CF B.J. Upton

RF Rocco Baldelli/Gabe Gross

DH Cliff Floyd/Baldelli

Boston

C Jason Varitek

1B Mark Kotsay/Sean Casey/Kevin Youkilis

2B Dustin Pedroia

3B Jed Lowrie/Youkilis

SS Lowrie/Alex Cora

LF Jason Bay

CF Jacoby Ellsbury/Coco Crisp

RF J.D. Drew/Ellsbury

Season Series: The Rays took 10 out of 18 in the regular season, but the series was as close as any in the majors. Tampa Bay took the lead in the seventh inning or later in six of their victories, and 11 of the contests were decided by three runs or less. ... Upton, Longoria, Crawford and Navarro combined to hit .202 (40-for-198) with 54 strikeouts against Boston while Pena and Iwamura held the offense up by batting .325 (38-for-117) with eight homers. Four of Iwamura's six blasts in the regular season came against the Red Sox. ... Ellsbury, Drew and Pedroia paced the Boston offense by combining to bat .301 (52-for-173) while Youkilis, Varitek, Lowrie, Bay and Ortiz did not fare as well, batting .210 (43-for-205). ... Tampa Bay's top two starters had a tough time against the Red Sox, with Shields and Kazmir allowing 44 hits and 31 runs in 38 innings, while Sonnanstine held them scoreless over 13 innings in two starts. ... Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka combined to go 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA while striking out 73 in 70 innings. But Wakefield, who owns a 19-5 career mark against the Rays, was pounded for 10 runs and 17 hits in 15 1/3 frames against them this season.

Keys to the series:

1) Which Josh Beckett will show up? Boston manager Terry Francona seems to have lined up his pitching for a potentially long series, with Beckett going in Games Two and Six and Lester backing him up in Three and Seven. But Beckett looked much different than his usual dominant playoff self against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the AL Division Series, allowing four runs and nine hits while tying a season-high with four walks in five frames. The Red Sox's ace has had his ups and downs this season, landing on the disabled list twice with back and elbow ailments before getting pushed back to Game Three of the ALDS due to an oblique strain. If the Beckett that owns a 9-0 playoff record with a 2.09 ERA shows up, the Rays have little chance. But if it's the same righthander that pitched against the Angels, then the series becomes much more interesting.

2) Can anyone hit the Rays' bullpen? Long the laughingstock of the major leagues, Tampa Bay has transformed its bullpen into a dominating crew. The relief corps allowed one run and six hits in 11 2/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS while leaning heavily on righthander Grant Balfour and lefthander J.P. Howell. Tampa's 'pen posted a 3.55 ERA during the regular season - good for third in the AL - and stymied the Red Sox. The top four of Howell, Balfour, Dan Wheeler and Trever Miller combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 35 1/3 innings against Boston.

3) Will the teams be able to keep their emotions in check? One of the highlights that will run far too many times over the next four-plus games will be the brawl from June 5 when Crisp charged Shields on the mound, leading to a lengthy fracas between the clubs and numerous suspensions. There probably was little need for advance scouting entering the series due to the familiarity the teams have with each other, and that familiarity breeds contempt - especially on the Rays' side, as the team continues to try to gain respect in the AL East after finishing in last place in nine of the last 10 seasons.

4) How will Francona manage the injuries on his team? As evidenced by Boston's list of probable starters, Francona has a great deal of flexibility built into his team. However, with Mike Lowell out for the series, Francona's ability to mix and match based on the situation and the pitcher will be scrutinized. The best defensive alignment would be to play Youkilis at first with Lowrie at third and Cora at shortstop, but that would sacrifice some offense. Kotsay or Casey at first base with Youkilis moving over to the hot corner makes more sense for the beginning of the game, with Cora coming in if the Red Sox grab a late lead. Drew took a game off in the ALDS and had only five plate appearances in the regular season after August 17 due to a back injury. Should he tighten up again, Crisp would move to center and Ellsbury or Kotsay would have to take over in right.

They said it: "Battle on, baby. It's going to be a battle from day one," Rays designated hitter Cliff Floyd told Yahoo! Sports. "They hate us, we hate them, let's go for it."

Prediction: Red Sox in seven.