NBA Playoff Preview - Portland vs. Memphis

Apr 17, 2015 - 5:50 PM (SportsNetwork.com) - Rare is the occasion where a higher seed does not have homecourt advantage in a first-round series, but that's the case when the fourth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers start the postseason on Beale Street against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis had a better record than Portland, but, by virtue of winning the Northwest Division, the Blazers were the fourth seed and the Grizzlies the fifth.

"Everything is different," said Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge of the playoffs. "Last year, Houston had more wins than us too. I think things just change in the playoffs. I feel like everybody is ready to take on that challenge of going to Memphis, or whatever. So I feel like that don't matter now."

The Blazers did upset the Houston Rockets in last year's playoffs, but Aldridge is right, everything is different.

First, Portland is dinged up heading into this postseason. Aldridge and fellow All-Star Damian Lillard are around, but starting shooting guard Wesley Matthews suffered a torn left Achilles tendon and is out. His replacement, Arron Afflalo, has a strained right shoulder and is expected to miss at least Sunday's Game 1. The next in line, C.J. McCollum, has a left ankle sprain, missed the season finale, and is questionable for Sunday.

Another starter, Nicolas Batum, has a right knee contusion and also missed the final game of the regular season. But, like McCollum, he expects to play in Game 1.

The Blazers have health concerns, but that's not the worst of it. The Grizzlies swept the season series against Portland and is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Memphis has won four straight at home and two straight in Portland.

"Last year Houston beat up on us in the regular season 3-1," said Lillard. "We got the best of them in the playoffs, we locked in and got it done."

These two teams were second and third in the Western Conference through most of the regular season, but suffered late-season swoons. The Trail Blazers went 3-6 in April, while the Grizzlies went 5-6 over their final 11.

However, Memphis is built for the postseason. The Grizzlies finished second in the NBA in opponents' scoring and are known for their rugged defense. They feature the league's best big-man combination with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, but the emergence of Mike Conley made Memphis an apparent contender.

But, like the Blazers, the Grizz are experiencing injury problems as well, especially Conley. He's been dealing with a foot issue and Tony Allen, arguably the best defensive guard in the association, has a hamstring problem. Head coach Dave Joerger indicated there is no timetable for a return.

"When you're missing two starters, it's very difficult to gauge," said Joerger. "You don't know when they'll be able to play. I'm won't be able to prognosticate if they'll be able to play Sunday or Wednesday. I don't know if either one of them will be play."

Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes will handle the point guard duties if Conley can't go. Courtney Lee and Jeff Green were part of a three-man wing rotation with Allen, although neither is the defender Allen is.

Injuries are a reality at this point on the calendar. What's more interesting is the contrast in styles between these two teams. Portland is a 3-point shooting team and likes to get up and down the floor. Memphis is physical, punishing and awful shooting the ball from long range.

It makes for an intriguing series.

MATCHUPS:

BACKCOURT: Lillard is a killer. He averaged a career-best 21.0 ppg with 6.2 assists. He's started and played in every possible game in his career and logs heavy, heavy minutes. But that's what Lillard wants. He loves the spotlight and the more pressure-filled the moment, the more Lillard responds. Fatigue might be an issue, but his defense is a bigger one. Lillard is just not a good defender. McCollum saw an increase in minutes and output this season. In the seven games before his ankle injury, McCollum averaged 17.2 ppg. Offense won't be an issue for the Blazers backcourt.

Let's assume Conley can play some during this series. Conley averaged 15.8 ppg, 5.4 apg and 1.3 steals per game. He's a premiere defender at the point guard and is a dog-nosed competitor. Conley is the most under appreciated contributor to a great team in the league. He's a fringe All-Star. Courtney Lee had a decent season. He shot the ball very well from deep, shooting 40 percent from beyond the 3-point arc. Lee's a pretty solid defender, which goes with the identity of Memphis. If Conley is out, Lee will need to pick up his scoring to some degree.

EDGE: BLAZERS

FRONTCOURT: Aldridge is one of the best forwards in the league. He's a multi- talented threat, shooting from the perimeter with a vaunted inside game to boot. Aldridge's rebounding has been steadily over 10 a night the last two seasons, which coincides with his rise to elite level. Aldridge has a hand injury, but played through it, pretty miraculously. Can he match up physically with Randolph? That will go a long way to determining the outcome of this series. Batum is an all-around talent, including defensively. His scoring dipped 3.0 points a game this season, but he rebounds well for a small forward and hands out assists very well for a small forward. If his knee is fine, he'll be fine. Robin Lopez is limited offensively, but his presence is gigantic in this series. He'll be covering Gasol and Gasol can pull him away from the basket.

Speaking of Gasol, he's the best overall center in the NBA. He averaged 17.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.8 apg and 1.6 blocks. Gasol is still the premiere defensive big man, not just for the rim protection, or lane clogging, but his athleticism allows him to switch on the perimeter to some extent. Gasol's an excellent passer and his ability to knock down the jumper allows Memphis to do a lot of high-low work with Randolph. Randolph is a brute. He averaged a double-double for the third consecutive season and fifth in the last six. Almost everything written about Gasol is true of Randolph, except for the defensive capability on the perimeter. Green hasn't been a great fit since he was acquired from the Boston Celtics. He can score and shoot, but it hasn't worked well. They'll need more from him in this series.

EDGE: GRIZZLIES

BENCH: Neither bench is very formidable.

With all of the injuries the Blazers are dealing with, the second unit is depleted. If Afflalo comes back, McCollum will be a solid hand. The big men are capable with Chris Kaman, Joel Freeland and Meyers Leonard. Steve Blake is the primary backup in the backcourt and Alonzo Gee has seen more time in recent weeks.

Calathes and Udrih are good reserves and Kosta Koufos is a very strong third big man. If Allen can play, he'll be on the floor late because of his defense, energy and faith Joerger has in him. Vince Carter is going to do something for this team at some point. He has too much experience and still enough pop to contribute in an impactful way for the Grizzlies.

EDGE: GRIZZLIES

COACHING: Stotts is 138-108 in three seasons with the Blazers and 5-6 in the playoffs. He knows his team and is an offensive specialist.

Joerger is 105-59 in just two seasons and 3-4 in the playoffs, but that was just last season's seven-game loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

EDGE: EVEN

PREDICTION: Injuries are brutal, especially as a team hits the playoffs. If all healthy, this is a compelling series of physicality versus finesse.

Can Aldridge bang with Randolph for seven games? Can any team survive the rugged nature of the Grizzlies for seven games and live to tell the tale? Can Conley, Allen, or Afflalo play in this series at all?

It's hard to look past the Grizzlies' record against the Blazers. Tough interior play, like Memphis' style, is a terrible matchup for Portland. The Trail Blazers are also going with their third-best shooting guard in this series.

If Conley and Allen sit for the whole series, Portland might have the advantage. Aldridge and Lillard are both All-Stars with a shine for the spotlight. It just won't be enough to stop Gasol and Randolph.

SPORTS NETWORK PREDICTION: GRIZZLIES in SIX