Seahawks to win second straight Super Bowl

Jan 28, 2015 - 7:29 PM Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) - Based on last year's victory over Denver, it is hard to imagine Seattle as an underdog for a second straight Super Bowl. However, that is the scenario as New England is favored by one point for Sunday's game.

Tom Brady is no Peyton Manning in the postseason, but the Seahawks' defense is playing as well as it did this time last year. Given that, it is safe to apply "Super Bowl Betting 101" logic, which clearly states to take underdogs as they have covered 10 of the last 13 Super Bowls with seven outright victories.

It does not matter which conference the Super Bowl winner resides in as four different AFC franchises and five different NFC franchises have won the title over the last 13 years. The two conferences are basically even as they were from 1971 to 1995 when only four AFC clubs and just five NFC clubs won the Super Bowl.

The big difference between the two time frames is the NFC representative has been much more dominant over the last 13 years, covering the spread 10 times. In addition, when the NFC team is the underdog, its ATS record is 8-2 with five outright victories. That is the scenario for the third time in the last four years as Seattle is getting one point from New England.

Last season, the Seahawks received 1.5 points from Denver and destroyed the Broncos, 43-8. The game was never in doubt as Seattle led the AFC representative 22-0 at halftime and 36-0 near the end of the third quarter. It is true the Seahawks were plus-four in turnover margin, but it would not have mattered if the margin was zero.

Turnovers should not be an issue this time around as New England was tied with Green Bay for the top spot in the least number of giveaways at 13 while Seattle was next with just 14. Both clubs were in the middle of the pack in takeaways as New England had 25 and Seattle 23.

The game will be decided by which club is the better team, and right now that is Seattle. Sure the Seahawks needed a miracle to beat Green Bay and New England crushed Indianapolis, but the Packers were by far the more formidable opponent and they would have been favored by around a touchdown if matched up against the Colts.

It is another story of "what have you done for me lately" as not many bettors seem to recall how the Patriots were life and death to take down Baltimore.

Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson had one of his worst games versus Green Bay, so the likelihood of a reversal is extremely strong, especially against a mediocre New England pass defense. On the other side, Seattle was the No. 1 pass defense in the entire NFL while ranking third against the run.

It is ironic the team with the better defense has lost four of the last five Super Bowls (the lone winner was the Seahawks one year ago). The familiar adage "defense wins championships" has been hugely inaccurate as 10 years went by before the team that allowed fewer regular-season points covered the spread. Once again, Seattle was the team to snap the string.

OVER/UNDER TRENDS

In this new era of high-flying offenses, the last two Super Bowls (and three of the last four) have gone over the total. Last season's over/under total was 47 and the over was in the bag early in the fourth quarter when the Seahawks scored their final touchdown. It was the fourth consecutive time the game went over the number when the total was in the 40s. Ironically, the last three times the posted total was in the 50s, the game went under. This year's Super Bowl total is 47.5.

This year's game should have many more passes than runs as both squads will be unsuccessful on the ground. Remember, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady threw 58 passes the last time these two teams met in 2012. Seattle rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry that game as Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin combined for just 68 yards.

New England had gone under the total in five of its last six regular-season games, but went over the number in both playoff games. Seattle also went under the total in five of its last six regular-season games, but went over the number in both playoff contests.

THE FINAL TAKE

This is the second straight season (and third since 2009) the teams with the best record in each conference have reached the Super Bowl. Last year, Seattle won straight-up and against the spread, and in 2009, the New Orleans Saints also did so. Both winners were underdogs.

Look for similar results this time around as the Seahawks win and cover for the second consecutive season, matching the Patriots' back-to-back titles in 2004 and 2005. Go with the over as well.