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Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7, 12-3 West Coast) vs. UCLA Bruins (26-7, 15-5 PAC 12)
Odds courtesy of Draftkings
This is possibly the most intriguing matchup of the second round. The Gaels are a team that doesn’t have the name recognition or even the amount of talent as the UCLA Bruins, but you can see just how even these two teams are. UCLA is on a mission to return to the Final Four, but they already took all they could handle in the first round from Akron. As for Saint Mary’s, they showed that there are levels to being a great defensive team as they locked down the Indiana Hoosiers on the way to a 29 point victory. Now they enter as underdogs, but should they be?
The Bruins are in large part the same team that made it to the Final Four last season; however, the difference this time around is that the expectations are higher. UCLA certainly looked to be pressing in their first game as it took a few late bounces going their way to finally put away the Zips.
Moving into this matchup, the Bruins are an excellent offensive team with four legit scoring options on the floor at all times. Johnny Juzang leads the 14th best offense in the country in terms of efficiency. While the Bruins do have excellent shot makers, they are so efficient because they do not turn the ball over.
UCLA’s key to success against the tremendous Gaels defense is to get shooters open coming off of screens to create high percentage looks. Saint Mary’s may be a highly efficient defense, but that is because they are great in the halfcourt once they lull teams with their tempo, and that goes for both ends of the court. However, the one area where they can be had is behind the arc. They are 214th in three-point percentage allowed. Look for Juzang, Bernard, and Campbell to extend the Gaels with outside shooting.
Saint Mary’s was on fire from the field in thier first-round matchup. Everybody got in on the action as four guys put up double-figure point totals. Though in this matchup, the quality of defense only cranks up as the Bruins are a very sound defensive team.
The Gaels will need to get thier big man going early and often. Matthias Tass has been the guy all season as he is a highly skilled post player who averages over 12 points per game on 55 percent shooting. Getting Tass looks early will help get the tempo in the Gaels’ favor as the Bruins will look to play faster with outside shots. Tass will be going up against Myles Johnson, but Tass has plenty of tools in his bag and will be able to convert plenty of looks.
The Gaels are a great team and deserve much more national recognition, but they are meeting a team that can match them on both ends and has plenty of NCAA tournament experience. Saint Mary’s should not be three-point underdogs, but they don’t have enough offensively to win this game.
Pick: UCLA ML -150 (-110 at DraftKings)
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