| SPREAD | O/U | MONEY | |
|---|---|---|---|
SJS 1-0 | +14.0 -113 | o 59.5 -109 | +450 |
USC | -14.0 -108 | u 59.5 -112 | -715 |
No. 15 USC Trojans host the San Jose State Spartans (1-0) for their season opener Saturday in the United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The Spartans got off to a nice start by beating the brakes off of the FCS Southern Utah Thunderbirds 45-14 as 28-point home favorites.
USC head coach Clay Helton enters his fifth season as the full-time head coach. The Trojans have eight starters coming back on both sides of the ball. While the Spartans have nine returning starters on offense and all 11 return for the defense. ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks USC 67th in overall returning production for 2021 and San Jose State 76th.
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| SPREAD | O/U | MONEY | |
|---|---|---|---|
SJS 1-0 | +14.0 -113 | o 59.5 -109 | +450 |
USC | -14.0 -108 | u 59.5 -112 | -715 |
USC is 4-0 all-time against San Jose State (from 1995-2009) with an average score of 39.0-11.0. The Trojans are 7-8 overall and 4-11 against the spread (ATS) in non-conference games since 2016 (head coach Clay Helton’s first full season on the job). While San Jose State is 6-12 ATS in non-conference games over that time span. The Trojans are 9-6 O/U since 2016, and the Spartans are 8-10 O/U. In addition, USC is 12-13 ATS as a home favorite over that span, and San Jose State is 13-10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
*Betting splits pulled from Pregame.com’s Game Center*
We have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market. USC is getting three-fourths of the bets at publishing, but a slight majority of the cash is on San Jose State’s spread. Oddsmakers have reacted by moving USC down from a 17-point favorite on the opener to the current price. Both sides of the market are barreling into the Over, which has caused sportsbooks to move the total up from the 57.5-point opener.
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The Trojans haven’t been consistent enough in the Clay Helton-era to justify laying more than two touchdowns to a quality opponent. It might be shocking to hear that San Jose State is a quality opponent. The Spartans won the Mountain West Conference in 2020 with a 7-1 record and only finished three spots behind the Trojans in the final AP Poll. Also, when you exclude garbage time, San Jose State had a better offensive and defensive EPA than USC last year. On top of that, it’s just a bad spot for the Trojans, who have a losing ATS record as a home favorite and in non-conference games since Helton took over the program.
Granted, USC is projected to return more talent, and sophomore QB Kedon Slovis is preseason All-Pac-12 first-team. But, that’s baked into the line which the “sharps” have steamed down from the Trojans laying -17 to the current number. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting, especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
Another reason why USC is overpriced here is that the Trojans’ 5-1 record last year was misleading. USC had the 92nd-most difficult strength of schedule (out of 128 charted teams), and three of its five wins were in one-score games. Furthermore, USC’s defense was mediocre last season, and Football Outsiders ranked the Trojans’ defense 100th in the “returning talent index.” Even if San Jose State is losing handily, the backdoor will be wide-open against USC. All five of San Jose State’s starting offensive linemen from last season returned, as did QB Nick Starkel. So I could envision the Spartans being able to move the chains.
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Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.
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