Last week, Notre Dame survived a scare at home against Toldeo, escaping with a 32-29 victory. One week earlier, they tight roped an OT win against a subpar Florida State squad too. It’s been as difficult a road to 2-0 as the Fighting Irish has had in some time. Purdue (2-0) has had an easier time of it, blanking UConn 49-0 and hanging onto a win at home versus Oregon State in the opener. Now, the Shilelagh Trophy will be up for grabs for the first time since 2014, when Notre Dame topped Purdue 30-14.
Pags NCAAF Picks YTD: 8-1-1 (+7.3 units)
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Details
Overview
Purdue appears to have found its QB in Jack Plummer. Heading into the year, the debate raged between Plummer and Aiden O’Connell. So far, Plummer has a 74% completion percentage, six touchdowns to zero interceptions, and is averaging 275 passing yards per game. Whether it’s Plummer’s increased confidence or WR David Bell’s propensity for hauling in anything thrown near him, the Boilermakers are rolling on offense in the early season. However, the offense lost a key component when top RB Zander Horvath suffered a broken leg in last week’s game, leaving the backfield short on experience. Junior King Doerue and transfer redshirt freshman Dylan Downing will try to fill the gap left by their fifth-year senior teammate.
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Notre Dame has struggled with consistency from their offensive line in general and, explicitly, having recently lost LT Blake Fisher for the foreseeable future. However, having that problem in front of a quarterback committee hasn’t completely blown up the offense, as the Irish have managed 73 points in their two games. First, QB Jack Coan threw for 366 yards and four TDs in Week 1, then Notre Dame unleashed QB Tyler Buchner’s rushing ability, as he split Toledo for 68 yards (9.7 yards per carry) in Week 2.
On the defensive side, Notre Dame has gotten to the opposing quarterbacks to the tune of ten sacks. They could add another key cog this week to their pash rush, sophomore DE Jordan Botelho. The opposition has torched the Irish secondary with big plays, so adding another sack artist in the fold could help limit those defensive backbreakers.
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Bottom Line
Despite the injury at RB, Purdue has a talented offense. Notre Dame has struggled to cover, so WR David Bell should be on full display in this one. However, Purdue isn’t a defensive powerhouse; they can be attacked, and the Irish have skilled players who can be tough matchups. FanDuel Sportsbook‘s 58.5 point total is in serious jeopardy in this one, as both offenses should find success on Saturday. The real question is can Notre Dame put together the 60-minute effort necessary to cover the 7.5 point spread? Ultimately, if they have hopes of a CFB Playoff run in 2021, the answer better be yes against this Purdue defense lacking any star power outside of DE George Karlaftis.
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Purdue 27
Picks: Notre Dame -8.5 | 1.0 units, OVER 58.5 | 1.0 units *line dipped to 7.5 yesterday, more confident there
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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.
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