Oregon is trying to make a statement this year, and besides an overtime loss to Stanford, they have been doing great at it. They are 6-1 with wins against Ohio State and UCLA. Oregon has a true dual-threat quarterback in Anthony Brown and a quality running back with Travis Dye. They have pieces to get to the College Football Playoffs. Colorado, on the other hand, has been having a rough year. They are 2-5, and in all their losses, they have struggled to score over 14 points. These teams could not be more opposite of each other, which is something to consider when betting on this matchup.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Oregon has a well-balanced team on both sides of the ball this year. Defensively, they are giving up 21 points per game. Kayvon Thibodeaux has been dominant in rushing the ball, and Colorado doesn’t have any offensive lineman that will be able to stop him. On the offensive side of the ball, Oregon is averaging 34 points per game. They are throwing for 227 yards per game and running the ball for 198 yards per game. Oregon is running the ball on 60% of their plays. Since they run the ball, their games are typically close, and their opponents have opportunities to score the ball during the fourth quarter. About 40% of the points that opposing teams score against Oregon have been in the fourth quarter.
Colorado runs the ball 66% of the time. Even though they like to run the ball like Oregon, they are a completely different team. They are averaging 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, and their leading rusher has 373 yards through 7 games. Throwing the ball, they are completing only 54% of their pass attempts. Defensively, Colorado has struggled. They are giving up 33 points per game against Pac-12 opponents if you take out the outlier against Arizona. Arizona is getting beat badly by everyone in the Pac-12 and is an outlier. Colorado is going to struggle to score the ball, and they will give up points on defense.
Oregon is a great football team on both sides of the ball. They will hold Colorado to under 14 points, and they can score 37 points on offense in this game. Oregon to cover 23 has a betting value this week. The spread has moved almost five points since the odds were released. The movement increases the value of this play because we are getting an extra five points for the same odds. This play has too much betting value to ignore this week. Oregon to cover the spread is the play.
Pick: Oregon -23 (-110)
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