College Football is three weeks away. The wait is almost over! Today we will look at two Independent teams who have a chance at surpassing their season-long win total and or making a run at the playoffs. As always, we will be using returning production, SP+ efficiency for offense and defense, and advanced statistics to analyze each team. Let’s get started.
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BYU is one of five teams to have a top 30 ranking in offensive returning production (15th) paired with a top 30 2021 SP+ offense ranking (14th). QB Jaren Hall returns to lead this elite unit. He had a tremendous 2021 campaign (2583 passing yards, 8.7 yds/att, 20 TDs, and 5 INTs). On top of that, he accounted for the second most rushing yards (307 yards and 3 TDs). Let’s take a closer look at this unit.
QB Jaren Hall:
Offense:
QB Jaren Hall is consistent across the board in pretty much every metric. He is not elite in any one thing, but that is not concerning to me, as he was just a sophomore last year. If he improves, he can easily progress into the upper echelon of QBs. The offense stood out in many areas last year outside of passing explosiveness. They will lose RB Tyler Allgeier to the NFL (1606 rushing yards and 23 TDs). Whoever plugs into the starting role will run behind arguably a top-five OL and will more than likely produce another 1000-yard season. BYU will catch few breaks from a schedule perspective as they face four teams that ranked 75th or worse in SP+ defense and four teams that have a defensive returning production ranking worse than 85th.
Defense:
BYU’s defense is the definition of a “bend but don’t break” defense. This unit was exceptional at limiting explosive pass plays but allowed an abysmal success rate. The elite returning production will be the reason they improve in efficiency, but what level they improve to is hard to say. Even though they will improve in SP+ defense and overall havoc rate, they will regress in takeaways. This unit outperformed their havoc rate with 20 takeaways when the average for their ranking is 16. The defense will only face two teams with top 50 offensive returning production and five teams that ranked 50th or higher in 2021 SP+ offense.
BYU has an incredibly unique schedule. What worries me most is they will regress record-wise in one-score games (4-0 in 2021), and they will not receive a bye week until after their 10th game. From a returning production standpoint, they have one of the best profiles in all of college football. QB Jaren Hall led an elite offense as a sophomore and has plenty of room to improve. He will also be protected by one of the most experienced offensive lines. The defense will improve across the board based on the sheer amount of defensive returning production. I think they have a better than a coinflips chance of going over their 8.5 season-long wins total, and at +110, there is value.
Notre Dame (o9.5 wins +200, to make playoffs +1000):
Notre Dame has a season-long win total of 8.5, but at -140 to the over, it’s simply not worth it. We will look at the possibility they win 10 games or make the playoffs. Notre Dame has an unbalanced returning production profile. They have an offensive returning production ranking of 114th paired with a 2021 SP+ offense ranking of 20th and a defensive returning production ranking of 43rd paired with a 2021 SP+ defense ranking of 15th. The defense will have to be the heartbeat of this team. Losing QB Jack Coan will have two effects. One, he was a veteran and extremely consistent in the intermediate (10-19 yards), and second, he was a statue and struggled mightily with deep throws (20 plus yards). Dual-threat QB Tyler Buchner will be the starter in 2022 and brings an element that Notre Dame has significantly lacked in previous years. Buchner was second on the team in rushing yards (336 yds 3 TDs) with only 46 attempts. He will be raw from the passing perspective as he only had 35 attempts in 2021. Let’s dive into these units.
Offense:
Notre Dame’s inability to run the ball efficiently can be directly correlated to opposing defenses not having to account for QB Jack Coan at all. Even with those horrendous numbers, they still won 11 games. QB Tyler Buchner will be able to keep the defense honest with his athletic ability and should open up more opportunities for running backs to have success. OC Tommy Rees will have to get creative with the passing game and manufacture confidence for this unit to shine. TE Michael Mayer will be a safety net for Buchner and is recognized as the Top TE in college football. From a schedule standpoint, they will only face 3 teams who ranked 50th or better in 2021 SP+ defense. They will more than likely regress from their ranking of 20th in SP+ offense, but they should improve in several underlying metrics.
Defense:
Notre Dame’s biggest loss will be first-round NFL pick Safety Kyle Hamilton. With that being said, they have above-average defensive returning production (43rd) from a borderline elite defense (15th in SP+ defense). As stated in a previous article, Notre Dame vastly overperformed its Havoc Rate in 2021. The average amount of takeaways for a team ranked 63rd in Havoc Rate was 17; they had 25. Notre Dame will improve its havoc rate ranking but will regress in overall takeaways. The schedule for this unit is promising. They will face possibly four elite offenses, depending on how well Clemson improves upon their 2021 ranking of 71st in SP+ offense. Ohio State (1st), BYU (14th), and USC (46th) will be the toughest tests for this unit in 2022.
Notre Dame is +15.5 to open the year to Ohio State. It is safe to say that it will be a loss. Ohio State is a perennial powerhouse this year and, in my opinion, will make the playoffs and is on the short list of contenders to win a championship. We have to ask ourselves, if Notre Dame runs the table can they get into the playoffs? They would have a pretty solid resume with wins over USC, Clemson, and BYU. In certain years that might be enough, and in other years, like in 2021, it was not. As it stands right now, they are small underdogs to both USC and Clemson. +1000 has value, but it will all be tied to how those two teams fair this year. If either falters and misses expectations, Notre Dame will be on the outside looking in. There is a slight value in +200 to win 10 games. In my opinion, they will win one of the two games vs USC and Clemson.
As always, thanks for reading, and come back next time as we dive into the Power 6 conferences.
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