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Happy Thursday, y’all! We had a hiatus from this post last week due to the fact that I was actually in Vegas placing bets. I regret to inform you that, it did not go well. Texas decided to play like somewhere close to its potential, screwing my first parlay in the process. The second parlay nearly came to fruition, only for USC to barely avoid being backdoored by the Stanford trees. It was painful all around, but my brother’s bachelor party was still a success. Cheers to a happy marriage for Charlie and Lauren!
Anyway, I’ll probably do well without any actual money on the line. Them’s the breaks.
Oklahoma (-11) at Nebraska — This one opened at -16 on Sunday. My immediate reaction (as well as everyone else’s, apparently) was that it was way too high. Yes, Nebraska had a mind-numbing loss to Northwestern in Dublin, and yes, the Bugeaters lost to at home to a Georgia Southern team coached by Clay Helton. Going back to last year, however, you can spot one major trend of all of the many, many losses — they’re all close. Nebraska tends to play to the level of its opponent, no matter who that opponent happens to be. They’ll have a ton of emotion playing for popular interim coach Mickey Joseph, and I’d expect a great game on Saturday. Gambling pick: I’ve gone back and forth on who actually wins this game, as I could just picture Nebraska playing its best game of the year and pulling an upset. At any rate, I’m confident in two things: 1. Nebraska covering and 2. Oklahoma winning the Big 12 no matter what we see on Saturday. Under 66
BYU at Oregon (-3.5) — I’m gonna go back to what I said prior to Oregon’s game against Georgia and mention that this team just had too much offseason turnover to be particularly competitive this early in the season. It’s not a knock on Dan Lanning, who I think will eventually thrive up there. The one thing UO might have going for it this week is that BYU could be a little beat up after a physical OT win over Baylor. Gambling pick: I’m still going with BYU, and I’ll take them straight up. Under 58.5
Penn State (-3) at Auburn — I’m having a tough time getting a read on Penn State, who needed a Purdue collapse to win in West Lafayette in Week 1. They did look pretty dominant this past week against Ohio, while Auburn had a competitive game with San Jose State. Gambling pick: I’ll go with Penn State covering due to having more dynamic offense than Auburn. Admittedly, that bar is exceedingly low. Under 47.5
Kansas at Houston (-8.5) — Lance Leipold deserves all of the booster money for making Kansas Football something that can be described as anything other than an abomination. In Week 1, the Jayhawks did what a P5 program should do against an FCS opponent, which represents a major departure from the post-Mangino regimes. Winning in Morgantown this past week shows that this is a team that has clearly bought in and a roster that should at least be respected. Again... a major departure. Gambling pick: Ehh... I’ll still take Houston to cover at home. Over 58.5
Texas Tech at NC State (-10.5) — The Wolfpack needed a missed extra point to beat East Carolina in Week 1, but we’ll cut them some slack due to playing in hostile environment and facing what appears to be a decent G5 team. On the other side, it appears that Texas Tech is back to having a truly potent offense, setting up a good-on-good matchup in Raleigh. If Donovan Smith can limit the mistakes, this could end up being the game of the day. Gambling pick: I don’t think Smith limits said mistakes, so I’ll take NC State to cover late. Over 56
Miami at Texas A&M (-6) — The Aggie cult and its insecure alumni FORMER STUDENTS will try to convince you that A&M is well on its way to national championship contention by sheer virtue of the fact that they hare throwing a shitload of money at the situation. Unfortunately, they appear to have learned very little from their neighbors to the west. Ample resources are necessary to accomplish this goal, but so are culture and competence. I’ll continue to laugh from afar until they get this one figured out.
Oh, sorry, I forgot I was making a gambling pick. Gambling pick: Miami wins straight-up and the TexAgs boards are set ablaze. Over 44.5
