Week 4 is an exciting time in college football. Fall is officially here, we start to get into conference play and more importantly we’re starting to draw a clearer picture about every team. Conference play can be a goldmine for longshot winners. Teams are more familiar with each other, players are more familiar with each other and bad blood can spill over.
Every week I’ll point out a few longshot teams with great chances to not only cover the spread, but win outright. Let’s take a look at the week 4 slate.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 4 College Football Power Rankings >>
Wake Forest starts their ACC schedule hosting Clemson. The Demon Deacons come into the game after surviving an upset effort by a scrappy Liberty team in week 3. Giving pause on Wake Forest is understandable, but expect them to come in focused on a Clemson opponent that has been the toast of the ACC for the better part of a decade. QB Sam Hartman was excellent in 2021, but a medical scare right before the season made his football future uncertain. Thankfully, he’s back and with two games now under his belt, he will only get more comfortable in the offense.
Clemson’s 3-0 record and 41.3 points per game is not indicative of how the offense has actually performed. Week 1 against Georgia Tech, Clemson managed just 13 first-half points, but took advantage of some short fields and poured it on late to make the final score look less pedestrian. Again, in week 3 against Louisiana Tech, they managed just 13 by halftime, but scored often in the second half. However, three of the five touchdown drives came on short fields of 32 yards or less.
Wake Forest will look to show that last season’s ACC Championship Game appearance wasn’t a fluke. A home win over Clemson will silence any doubters. If Clemson’s offense gets off to another slow start, the firepower on the Wake Forest offense may dig too deep of a hole for Clemson to climb out.
Pick: Wake Forest ML (+235)
What an emotional three weeks for App State. First came a crazy finish against in-state rival UNC. In the following week, they pulled a top-10 upset over Texas A&M. And then last week, they managed a miraculous last-second touchdown to beat division rival Troy. Next up on the schedule is former FCS powerhouse James Madison.
Often it takes programs a few years to really transition to the FBS level. Admittedly, I thought James Madison was destined to struggle in 2022 but the early returns show that lean was way off. The Dukes dominated MTSU in Week 1, then took care of business against FCS Norfolk State. James Madison has dominated on both sides of the ball out-gaining their opponents 1,010 yards to 331 in their two contests. Analytic rankings such as SP+ and FEI haven’t been able to properly rate James Madison due to preseason ratings being skewed by the move from FCS. Yet, the in-season data like EPA per play indicate this offense and defense are for real.
The Dukes are closer to App State than the betting market implies. This is a solid FBS offense and defense. They are more than capable to going into Boone, NC and pulling off the upset. The magic of App State is due to run out and a James Madison team with a championship pedigree will not be intimidated by the moment.
Pick: James Madison ML (+225)
Oregon State hosts PAC-12 rival USC Saturday night in Corvallis, Ore. The Beavers have steadily improved under head coach Jonathan Smith after about a decade of conference irrelevance. They enter this contest 3-0 on the season with a win over Mountain West darling Boise State and a road win over a good Fresno State team.
USC will be the Beavers’ toughest test yet. The Trojans boast a top-10 offense by almost any metric and took care of common opponent Fresno State with ease last Saturday. In contrast, Oregon State needed a last-minute score to beat the Bulldogs on the road. Yet, the results against Fresno State are not indicative of where these two teams are currently. In reality, Oregon State boasts a highly-rated offense of their own that is more than capable of scoring on the USC defense. This matchup could end up being a shootout and that is often a recipe for an upset.
With a win in Los Angeles last season, this Beaver squad will not be intimidated by the names on the back or front of the jerseys lined up across from them. Expect Reser Stadium to be rocking for this PAC-12 matchup between high-powered offenses. USC is officially on upset alert.
Pick: Oregon State ML (+205)
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