Special thanks to Michael Preston of CougCenter for joining me on the Quack 12 Podcast to talk about Washington State’s roster. LISTEN HERE
Wazzu has gone back to the Air Raid after two years of a heavily modified Run & Shoot, though as discussed in my Summer preview of the Cougars, new OC Morris has hybridized it with a lot of spread-option concepts and uses a tight end on about a third of all snaps.
It’s been a bumpy start at the FBS level for FCS transfer and Jerry Rice Award winner #1 QB C. Ward, who came to Pullman along with Morris from Incarnate Word. He puts a lot of zip on the ball and triggers very quickly when his read is open, and I think he’s a very dangerous quarterback at the couple of things he does well. But there’s only a few of those things, and I think his toolkit right now is fairly limited. Michael and I discussed his performance so far on the podcast at length; I would characterize him as a one-read QB at this point, his throwing motion and footwork are very unorthodox, and I haven’t seen him throw deep down the field with accuracy at all.
That’s resulted in some pretty uncharacteristic passing efficiency and explosiveness numbers for the Cougs compared to their years under former head coach (and Morris’ mentor at Texas Tech) Mike Leach. Outside of garbage time and including their surprisingly tight opener against FCS Idaho, they have 44 successful designed passing plays vs 52 failed ones, given the down & distance, underwater at just 46% efficiency. (Only one of the twelve stats I track on both sides of the ball changes significantly when excluding the FCS data, and it’s on defense.)
The Cougs are only averaging an adjusted 6.8 yards per attempt, which is a slightly below average number and pretty concerning for a team that throws the ball three-quarters of the time. Their explosiveness rate is a bit above average, with about 16.5% of passes gaining 15+ yards, almost entirely on broken tackles for significant yards after catch (Wisconsin blew several big ones). For comparison, in Leach’s last year with Wazzu they were at 55% efficiency, 8.2 adjusted YPA, and 18% explosiveness … and that was a 6-7 season.
As is typical with the Air Raid passing tree, the offense is almost entirely concerned with a series of short routes and using them to march down the field methodically. Most of the downfield passing game will look familiar to observers of Leach’s teams, and Ward executes these throws pretty well when they’re there. Some examples:
(Reminder - after pressing play, you can use the left button to slow any video to ¼ or ½ speed)
The most significant issue with the passing offense is that if the first read isn’t there then the play is likely to result in some pocket drama. The offensive line, which lost both its longtime tackles after last year, has a very hard time sustaining sufficient protection for Ward to even get to a second read, and Ward hasn’t yet shown that he’ll step up and go through the progression rather than scramble or take a sack. More than one-third of all dropbacks for a downfield pass result in a sack, scramble, or throwaway, which is a very poor figure in my experience, and just six of those scrambles have resulted in successful gains. Some examples:
Screen passes are a significant part of the offense, more than 16% of all plays, and the Cougs have gotten two of their biggest gains as well as two touchdowns on screens. However they’re not very efficient at them and have one more failed screen than they do successes, between telegraphing the play, perimeter blocking problems, and some weird ball placement issues from Ward. Here’s a representative sample of all screens:
Wazzu’s rushing offense so far is difficult to characterize. They run the ball so rarely that the dataset is really too small to have confidence in the results, and almost a quarter of their total designed rushing yardage comes from a single play against a pretty hapless Colorado St defense. I believe that the Cougs’ rushing numbers are best captured by simply striking that one big play from the data, in which case they have 13 successful designed runs vs 19 failed ones which is under 41% efficiency, at 4.9 adjusted YPC and 15% explosiveness, which are poor to mediocre figures. Here’s a representative sample of all runs:
I think new head coach Dickert has done an impressive job since arriving as DC in 2020 at cleaning up what had been the worst Pac-12 defense for years and smoothly switching schemes to his 4-2-5. There are still significant depth issues with this squad, particularly in the linebackers and secondary, but the speed of the defensive front and how many good edge players they have is shocking considering their talent ratings. In what might be a first for Wazzu, this appears to be a defense-led team, and it was fun to hear Michael’s take on that flip on the podcast.
That said, I’m not yet convinced the Cougs’ good defensive efficiency numbers so far are sustainable in Pac-12 play. They struggled against an FCS team, dominated a G5 team with the worst sacks allowed stat in the country, and squeaked out a P5 win against a Wisconsin team making a baffling number of mistakes. Like Oregon, there’s still a lot of mystery surrounding Wazzu since I think both teams’ marquee win to date was against an overrated team that wasn’t as physical in the trenches as their coaches thought they were.
Statistically, the biggest improvement the 2022 Cougs have recorded compared to previous seasons is in rush defense, where they had been a real doormat for most of the last two decades. In Wazzu’s three games so far this season, they’ve successfully defended 43 designed runs vs 33 failed ones outside garbage time, or 56.5%, an above average number though not championship-caliber. Explosiveness is even better: they’re limiting their opponents to an adjusted 3.8 YPC, and only about 9% of opponent rushes gain 10+ yards, both excellent figures. Some examples of quality rush defense:
The reason I remain skeptical as to whether Wazzu’s rush defense is for real is that I think a lot of it is based on stacking the box against a very stubborn rushing team in Camp Randall and otherwise aggressively slanting right off the snap, which can result in running themselves out of the play if they play a better (and smarter) blocking approach. Some examples:
Pass defense has improved even more, though I’m also uncertain as to how much of it is for real. Over all three games this year, Wazzu has successfully defended 61 designed passing plays vs 35 failures, or 63.5%, which is a championship number. Mostly what I’m seeing is a great pass rush, and Michael and I were both shocked at how much the tackling has improved this year, but I also think their veteran starting corners are finally showing some real aptitude for the occasional high stakes pass break-up. Some examples:
But I haven’t been very impressed with the linebackers and safeties in coverage, and if the pass rush doesn’t get home right away offenses have been able to pick them apart for big gains. Some examples: