The first Sunday Night Football showdown of the 2021 season involves the Los Angeles Rams and new quarterback Matthew Stafford taking on the Chicago Bears and their new quarterback… Andy Dalton.
Okay, maybe I’m exaggerating. But thanks to Matt Nagy’s stubbornness, we will not get to see the debut of rookie Justin Fields, barring an injury. Instead, we’ll get to enjoy the beginning of what should be the Red Rifle’s last ride as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
The Rams are currently 7.5-point home favorites in this matchup. Will they take care of business against “Da Bears,” or will Dalton get the job done at SoFi Stadium?
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Let’s make something clear. Jared Goff isn’t a bad quarterback. He’s competent, but he’s limited. Rams coach Sean McVay essentially had to spoon-feed information to Goff pre-snap. When he had protection, Goff was actually good. But when the protection broke down, so did Goff, whose inability to extend plays with his legs often led to drive-killing sacks or mind-numbing decisions.
The Rams had reached their peak with Goff, which is why they sent him to NFL Siberia (Detroit) for Stafford, who’s the polar opposite of Goff.
Stafford is a gunslinger who will push the ball downfield and keep plays alive outside the pocket. That aggressiveness can come at a cost in big situations. But overall, it should allow McVay to expand the playbook and force defenses to respect the downfield passing game.
Stafford will also have possibly the best group of weapons he’s had in his career, as Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee return. Los Angeles appears to be going with Darrell Henderson as its starting tailback, but newly-acquired tailback Sony Michel should also factor into the mix. Stafford will also be protected by an offensive line that’s vastly improved over the last several seasons and enters the season as the 8th-best line in the league, per ProFootballFocus.
Defensively, the Rams are replacing several starters from a unit that ranked 4th in the league in FootballOutsiders’ Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average metric. The most notable departures came in the secondary, where cornerback Troy Hill and safety John Johnson departed in free agency. Former defensive coordinator Brandon Staley is also gone after taking the Chargers head coaching job.
Despite those departures, the Rams still have their defensive anchors: Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Any drop-off suffered on defense should be mitigated by Los Angeles’ likely improvement offensively. The Rams are deservedly a contender.
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Matt Nagy is coaching for his job. GM Ryan Pace’s job is likely on the line too. Despite all of this, the organization has found a way to make its fans even angrier by starting Dalton in the season opener.
To be fair, Dalton wasn’t that bad after being called into action following Dak Prescott’s devastating injury. He completed 64.5% of his passes, threw for over 2,000 yards, and had 14 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. It didn’t help that Dallas’ offensive line collapsed around him either.
However, we know what Dalton is now: a pedestrian passer who crumbles under duress. He’s what every team should want in a backup, but he’s no longer a capable weekly starter.
We’ll save the Dalton vs. Fields debate for Chicago talk radio shows. But let’s just say Chicago’s offensive upside is capped with Dalton at the wheel.
Chicago has a thin set of weapons, headlined by receiver Allen Robinson and running back David Montgomery. The hope is that second-year receiver Darnell Mooney and second-year tight end Cole Kmet take big leaps forward. But in Kmet’s case, that’ll be hard to do, considering Jimmy Graham is somehow still on this roster.
The biggest concern for Chicago is its offensive line. The unit is already without second-round tackle Teven Jenkins, who underwent back surgery this summer. The Bears trust 39-year-old Jason Peters to protect Dalton’s blindside, while German Ifedi will play right tackle. Interior linemen Cody Whitehair and James Daniels are solid, but there are questions about center Sam Mustipher. Chicago’s O-line ranks 28th entering the season, per PFF.
Defensively, Chicago also could be poised to take a step back. The front seven gets a boost with the return of Eddie Goldman, who joins a young nucleus headlined by Roquan Smith and Eddie Jackson. But Akiem Hicks are now both in their 30’s. Robert Quinn was a gigantic disappointment in his first year with the Bears. And there are enormous questions at cornerback, where second-year pros Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor will be the starters.
After somehow making the playoffs as the 7th seed and embarrassing themselves on Nickelodeon, the Bears will need a lot to go right to be in contention.
This game comes down to pressure. Donald should dominate against this questionable Bears offensive line. On the other side, I expect McVay and Stafford to attack these inexperienced Chicago corners by getting the ball out quickly. If Chicago’s front seven can’t get pressure, it could be a long night in L.A.
The Rams are just the better team at every level except for perhaps the front seven. While I’d much prefer if this went back to -7, I’d lay the points and take a shot at the under, as I don’t anticipate much scoring from Chicago’s offense. Los Angeles is also a great option for 6-point teasers.
Pick: Under 46.5, lean Los Angeles -7.5
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.
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