Two rookie quarterbacks will square off at MetLife Stadium when Mac Jones and the New England Patriots travel to face Zach Wilson and the New York Jets Sunday afternoon. While it’s too early to make any definitive conclusions, this Week 2 showdown might give us an early indication of whether either of these teams found their franchise quarterback.
Both teams are coming off tough Week 1 losses, but for entirely different reasons. The Jets were rather hapless on both sides of the ball in the first half against Carolina before making the game respectable. The Patriots were in the game the entire way, and some might say they handed the Miami Dolphins a victory.
Which of these 0-1 AFC East teams should we back on Sunday? Let’s break it down:
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The Patriots lost 17-16 to the Miami Dolphins at home in Week 1, but they were actually the better team. New England out-gained Miami, 393-259, averaged 5.6 yards per play, and racked up 24 first downs to Miami’s 16. Ultimately, the game came down to some uncharacteristic mistakes from New England. The Pats committed eight penalties for 84 yards and turned the ball over twice.
Arguably the play of the game occurred on New England’s final drive. Trailing by one, New England was on Miami’s 11-yard line and in prime position to get a go-ahead score. But on 1st and 10 with just over three minutes to go, Damien Harris fumbled the ball — and ultimately the game away.
Despite the loss, New England can take solace in the fact that the rookie Jones looked pretty good under center. The Alabama product completed 29-of-39 passes for 281 yards and a touchdown. Jones executed New England’s rather conservative gameplan. He took care of the ball and didn’t push it downfield much, posting an intended air yards per attempt of just 6.3 yards. All things considered, it was an encouraging debut for the quarterback widely regarded as the fifth-best in his class.
Defensively, the Pats returned to form after an uncharacteristically bad 2020 season. New England held Miami to just five yards per play and 4-of-11 on third-down attempts.
If not for some critical mistakes, the Pats would be 1-0. It’s safe to say Bill Belichick will be preaching discipline and ball security all week long as they prepare for another pivotal divisional game.
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The Jets probably put up the worst performance of any team in Week 1, and it all starts with some embarrassing offensive line play. The Jets put resources into the line this offseason, but the reworked unit is clearly still a work in progress.
Carolina’s defense, which had 29 sacks through the entire 2020 season — sacked Zach Wilson six times and hit him 10 times on the day. There was no settling in for Wilson, who was rattled by the pressure early on. New York punted on its first three drives, then Wilson threw an egregious interception. However, the BYU rookie deserves credit for hanging tough. He finished with 258 yards and two touchdowns as the Jets showed some fight in the second half.
The Jets will need to find a way to get a push in the running game after rushing for just 45 yards in Week 1. New York is taking a mediocre committee approach, which is fine if the blocking is there. In Week 1, it wasn’t. Tevin Coleman rushed for 24 yards total, with 10 of them coming before contact. Ten of backup Ty Johnson’s 15 rushing yards came before contact, proving that New York’s backs had no room to run.
If New York can find more offensive balance, it will give Wilson more of a fighting chance. The problem is the Jets will be without left tackle Mekhi Becton, who suffered a sprained MCL in the season opener. That’s a massive loss, and one Belichick will certainly key on.
Defensively, the Jets had no answer for Christian McCaffrey, who racked up 98 rushing yards and caught nine passes for 89 yards. They hit Sam Darnold eight times but only sacked him once. However, it was encouraging to see a secondary with glaring concerns entering the season not get completely exposed.
The Patriots don’t have an explosive passing game that can expose New York’s secondary. However, running back James White could have a massive day in his pass-catching role.
Backing a big road favorite with a rookie quarterback in a divisional game is definitely a risk, but so is betting against Bill Belichick off a loss.
Since 2003, the Patriots are 46-23 ATS after a loss under Belichick, who is also notorious for giving rookie quarterbacks hell. New York’s offensive line should give a better effort in this game, but the loss of Becton will be too easy to exploit, as New York will likely go with George Fant and Morgan Moses as their starting tackles.
That all being said, this spread is just a little too high for me. However, that doesn’t mean I’m backing the Jets. Instead, I’m pointing my attention to the total.
The Jets will have trouble moving the ball against a stout New England defense. However, the Patriots don’t have much explosiveness on offense. I like New England to win but would rather take the under in a game I anticipate being pretty close.
Pick: Under 41.5
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