Given the dominance of NFL betting underdogs to begin the season, Week 2 felt much more orderly. While favorites might have put their foot down in terms of the win-loss column, it was actually another winning week for dogs against the spread. Teams catching points went 9-7 ATS last weekend and are now 31-13 overall on the season. Concerning totals betting through the first two weeks, 17 of the 32 games played have gone under.
Unfortunately, several key injuries to starting quarterbacks also occurred in Week 2. As a result, sportsbooks either delayed posting their opening point spreads for Week 3 or held off altogether until further updates on the various injuries were available. The injuries also caused drastic shifts in several over/under lines from the true opening number to where they stand today. As always, keeping up with the NFL betting market and the various line moves ahead of this week’s action is no easy task. Read on for an analysis of this week’s notable moves.
Get a $25 risk-free bet on your first NFL single-game parlay at PointsBet >>
The following column is written with the purpose of highlighting and analyzing the largest line moves to take place across the NFL betting market. Each week, we will discuss a handful of games whose spread or total has experienced a significant and/or noteworthy shift from the opening number. In addition to looking at the move itself, we will explore possible causes and rationale that sharp bettors used when placing wagers that ultimately moved the number.
Having an understanding of how the NFL betting market views a matchup is a key part of any handicapping strategy. With this in mind, readers will find a table at the end of this column that lists both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 3 slate.
Panthers at Texans (CAR from -3 to -8)
One need not look any further than this week’s Thursday Night Football contest to find a point spread that has shifted in a big way. After opening as field goal favorites on the road, the Carolina Panthers are now laying a whole eight points ahead of their game against the Houston Texans. There are presumably two key factors behind this drastic line move.
On the Carolina side of things, the Panthers were very impressive in winning outright as an NFL betting underdog last week. The defense in particular has been better than expected over the first two weeks. That is bad news for a Texans team that will be without quarterback Tyrod Taylor on Thursday due to a hamstring injury. No disrespect to rookie Davis Mills, but the Houston offense must be significantly downgraded by bettors until further notice.
Bengals at Steelers (PIT from -7 to -3)
The spread for this AFC North clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers has tightened up in a big way. After opening up as touchdown favorites, the Steelers are now only laying a field goal. In diagnosing what the causes of the shift might be, one can start with the fact that Pittsburgh suffered an extremely disappointing loss at home to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. However, the real factor is undoubtedly the health of QB Ben Roethlisberger.
#Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has a left pec injury. Coach Mike Tomlin says it will affect his preparation ability – and "We'd better be ready to be adjustable."
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) September 21, 2021
Pittsburgh’s signal-caller injured his pectoral muscle in the Week 2 loss and has been on the injury report this week. While there appears to be a real chance that he plays, he will be doing so at far less than 100%. This could be a real problem for the Steelers against an improved Cincinnati pass rush.
Buccaneers at Rams (TB from +2.5 to -1)
Our final Week 3 point spread move to highlight comes from a game that has shifted through pick’em. After opening as 2.5-point underdogs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now laying a single point ahead of their marquee showdown against the Los Angeles Rams. This battle of NFC heavyweights figures to be a good one. That said, it’s interesting to see the NFL betting market willing to back the Bucs so heavily on the road in this spot.
Both teams have been very impressive offensively to begin the season. Meanwhile, one could also make an argument that both defenses have been a bit underwhelming given the talent both rosters possess. Perhaps the revenge angle has been a popular handicapping component, as the Rams defeated the Buccaneers in Tampa late last season.
Cardinals at Jaguars (46 up to 52.5)
The total for Sunday’s showdown between the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars has seen one of the biggest moves on the Week 3 board. Given how impressive the Cardinals offense has been in their first two games, that is likely the leading cause behind the steam. The Jaguars’ defense is not good, and many sharp bettors likely expect Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of Arizona’s offense to light them up. Whether or not Trevor Lawrence and the Jags can score enough to push the game over 52.5 is another story.
Colts at Titans (54.5 down to 48)
Given that four of the last five meetings between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans have gone over the total, it’s interesting to see such a profound move to the under on this Week 3 matchup. Then there’s the fact that Derrick Henry and the Titans’ offense seemed to find their groove last week. Add in the true statement that neither team’s defense has been impressive over the first two weeks and the downward move on this total can only be attributed to one thing.
Colts quarterback Carson Wentz was among those who were injured last week. In Wentz’s case, he actually suffered sprains to both of his ankles. The jury is still out on his availability for Sunday’s game. While being a DNP at practice Wednesday isn’t promising, the fact that Wentz did not have a boot on either foot might be a good sign. Indianapolis will be stuck with Jacob Eason if Wentz cannot play on Sunday. Such a scenario figures to take a lot of scoring power out of the Colts’ offense.
Washington at Bills (41.5 up to 45.5)
We round out this week’s highlighted NFL betting line moves with a four-point increase in the total for Sunday’s matchup between the Washington Football Team and Buffalo Bills. Both of the most likely direct factors behind the move come from the Washington side of the spectrum. First, the offense actually fared quite well last week despite backup Taylor Heinicke taking over at quarterback. Some analysts even think Washington may be better off with Heinicke under center than Week 1 starter Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Good morning
Taylor Heinicke has completed more passes than 𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙚 in NFL history over their first three career starts pic.twitter.com/emnWzhbO5T
— Washington Football Team (@WashingtonNFL) September 20, 2021
The other thing to note is the shaky performance by the Football Team defense. Widely believed to be one of the top defenses in the NFL, Washington struggled to generate a pass rush against a statistically weak Giants offensive line. They committed numerous penalties and were also horrible on third downs. Needless to say, none of that will help them slow down Josh Allen and the talented Bills offense this week.
Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 3 NFL games including those discussed above.
Note: All current odds reflect lines at 6 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, September 22nd
| Matchup | Opening Lines | Current Vegas Consensus |
| Panthers Texans | -3 44.5 | -8 43 |
| Cardinals Jaguars | -7 46 | -7 52.5 |
| Colts Titans | 54.5 -5 | 48 -5.5 |
| Ravens Lions | -7.5 43.5 | -8.5 50 |
| Washington Bills | 41.5 -9.5 | 45.5 -7.5 |
| Saints Patriots | PICK PICK | 42 -3 |
| Chargers Chiefs | 46.5 -7 | 54.5 -6.5 |
| Falcons Giants | 48.5 -2.5 | 48 -3 |
| Bears Browns | 50 -7.5 | 46 -7 |
| Bengals Steelers | 47 -7 | 43.5 -3 |
| Dolphins Raiders | PICK PICK | 45 -4 |
| Jets Broncos | 42.5 -9 | 41.5 -10.5 |
| Buccaneers Rams | 52.5 -2.5 | -1 55.5 |
| Seahawks Vikings | -2.5 51 | -1.5 55 |
| Packers 49ers | 48.5 -3.5 | 50 -3.5 |
| Eagles Cowboys | 52.5 -3.5 | 51.5 -4 |
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive.
The post NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 3 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.
