Preseason NFL futures bets can take months to pay out, but they can be profitable thanks to favorable odds in exchange for the long play. Throughout this NFL Players Futures Odds series, we’ll take a look at the best odds across every major sportsbook and compare them to our 2022 NFL season projections and notes and analysis from our experts.
With a long NFL season filled with countless variables, NFL futures longshot bets can be some of the more profitable wagers because new players break out every year. Let’s take a look at some of the best longshot bets for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
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| PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DESMOND RIDDER ATL – QB | +1600 | +1200 | +1400 | +1400 | +1500 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
Desmond Ridder falls in the same third-round bucket as Malik Willis and Matt Corral from this class. Marcus Mariota might have been signed as the team’s bridge quarterback option, but that doesn’t wipe Ridder off the map to possibly win the job out of camp. The draft capital doesn’t ensure he’ll be given that shot, but Arthur Smith knows Mariota quite well from their time in Tennessee.
If Smith thinks Ridder can bring something more to the table or operate similarly to Mariota, he could win the starting call. Smith’s love for play-action passing will help Ridder. Last year Matt Ryan ranked 11th in play-action dropback rate (minimum 200 dropbacks, per PFF). In 2021, Ridder was tied for 17th in play-action passing touchdowns out of 121 qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 200 dropbacks, per PFF).
– Derek Brown
| PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS | | | | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DAMEON PIERCE HOU – RB | +2500 | +2000 | +2500 | +2000 | +2500 | +2800 | +2200 | +2200 |
If you liked Dameon Pierce before the NFL Draft, then you should be thrilled about his landing spot in Houston.
There’s a chance that PFF’s highest-graded running back from the FBS (92.0) in 2021 carves out a role on early downs even though the team added Marlon Mack this offseason. News flash, people – Mack signed a one-year, $two-million deal with Houston, and it’s less than the team is paying Rex Burkhead..1 million of Burkhead’s $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed.
We could easily see Mack released as much as we could see Pierce become the team’s starting running back.
Although my one reservation with Pierce is that traditionally New England has been very stingy about featuring rookie running backs historically – especially ones drafted late. During Nick Caserio’s tenure with the Patriots, Stevan Ridley’s 87 carries were the most for any non-first-round rookie running back.
It was until Caserio left New England for Houston, that Rhamondre Stevenson broke that mark with 133 carries in 2021. Not to mention, there’s clearly an affinity with veteran running backs that Texans can’t seem to quit. They force-fed David Johnson and Mark Ingram II among other veterans last season, despite having some younger players they could give reps to.
Caserio’s post-draft press conference cited Pierce as someone that needs to earn a role and be a factor on special teams. So pump the brakes on Pierce RB1 szn ever so slightly.
The fact Pierce never fully took over Florida’s backfield does raise red flags. His 12% career dominator rating is eerily similar to Trey Sermon (12%) from last season, and Sermon struggled to separate himself from the pack in his rookie campaign.
Even during his breakout senior season, the 5-foot-10 and 218-pound running back earned just a 22% dominator rating while sharing the backfield alongside fellow draft-eligible running back Malik Davis. However, I am willing to offer some benefit of the doubt after Pierce never topped 106 carries in college.
There may have been some underlying issue with former Gators head coach Dan Mullen that prevented Pierce from seeing a more featured role. Case in point: Pierce only had two games with double-digit carries in 2021, both of which came after Mullen was fired toward the end of the season.
Pierce’s lackluster dominator rating doesn’t capture his coach’s potential ineptitude. The fact Pierce competed with NFL talent like Jordan Scarlett and La’Mical Perine very early in his college career paints a better picture of how his impact will be felt in years to come. But from the get-go, I doubt we see Pierce be a major fantasy factor to start the 2022 season.
– Andrew Erickson
Dameon Pierce is your darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate
He's going to start immediately in Houston
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) April 30, 2022
| PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS | | | | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JALEN TOLBERT DAL – WR | +3300 | +1600 | +2200 | +2000 | +3300 | +3500 | NL | NL |
The Dallas Cowboys needed a No. 3 receiver and Jalen Tolbert fits the bill to a tee. The South Alabama product was a mega-producer in the small school college ranks.
The 6-foot-1 and 194-pound deep-ball specialist earned a career 31% dominator rating – top-three in the class – factoring in a redshirt freshman season. Tolbert posted dominator ratings of 35%, 42%, and 42% from his sophomore year onward. He torched defenses downfield as the nation’s leader in targets (99), catches (38), and receiving yards (1,402) on targets of 20-plus air yards.
Tolbert also boasts a 19-year-old breakout age – his player profile stacks up with some top wideouts from his class.
And although Tolbert doesn’t possess elite speed – 57th percentile 40-yard dash time – he still understands how to get open deep. He’s similar to Adam Thielen in that fashion.
If Tolbert can beat out James Washington – on a one-year $1.2M contract – in training camp, he could offer immediate value with Michael Gallup unlikely to be ready for Week 1 coming off a torn ACL.
He’s got big-play ability that should gel well with quarterback Dak Prescott.
– Andrew Erickson
One of:
Dalton Schultz OR Jalen Tolbert
Is going to MASSIVELY outperform their current ADP.
Dallas:
Fast pace
Strong passing rate
Michael Gallup recovering from ACL & has been JAG for most of his career— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 8, 2022
What are Player Futures?
Player futures refer to any player-based wager for a future event or a result. These bets often do not pay out until weeks or even months from when they are originally placed. Most player futures are built around a specific statistic, where bettors determine whether that player will come in above or below the oddsmakers’ total. They often open with odds at -110 but are adjusted based on where the majority of bets are placed.
Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>
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