The NFL awards markets tend to feature a few positive expected value bets throughout the summer. As the regular season nears, a few golden opportunities have dried up; specifically, long prices on Trey Lance and Jalen Hurts that I liked. Yet, there are still two players I would bet on in this market.
When analyzing the MVP market, it’s important to acknowledge the prerequisites for winning the award. It has to be a quarterback, and they have to win a lot of games. A quarterback has won MVP in 14 of the last 15 seasons, and the last non-QB to win was Adrian Peterson in 2012, who was eight yards shy of the single-season rushing record. The last five MVPs have won at least 13 games, and the previous MVP to win fewer than 10 games was Barry Sanders in 1997.
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Tom Brady was my favorite bet to win MVP last season at +1400, and I think he should’ve won it. Deservedly so, his odds of winning the award have increased in comparison to last offseason. Brady is a quarterback, of course, and his team will win a lot of games as the Buccaneers have the second highest win total in the NFL at 11.5.
Age is always a concern with a player who is breaking the rules of time, but at age 44, Brady was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback, finished first in yards, and first in touchdowns. It’s tough to project him slowing down at all, either. Despite losing Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers added Julio Jones, Russell Gage and Kyle Rudolph to solidify what is one of the best groups of pass catchers in the league.
ESPN’s projection wizard, Mike Clay, both project Brady to finish top three in the NFL in yards and touchdowns again this season. Brady should light up the stat sheet and scoreboard on route to another double-digit win season in Tampa Bay. He closes the season with games against Carolina and Atlanta, where he could light it up and swing a few votes based on recency bias. To make this bet a bit sweeter, the narrative surrounding Brady and the threat of retirement after this season could also push voters to lean towards him if this award is a close race like last year.
Buffalo has the highest win total and Super Bowl odds in the league. They have a relatively easy schedule and should win the AFC East and be one of the top teams in the AFC. While they have a loaded roster, Josh Allen is clearly the player driving the bus for this team. Allen is a top-10 passer in the league and one of the most dangerous threats on the ground.
He’s the clear No. 1 quarterback in fantasy football because he can amass stats on the ground and through the air. The Bills’ offensive line is their biggest weakness, and Allen’s alien-like play has made him a regression candidate. Still, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league playing on one of the best teams, which is why Allen is the rightful favorite for NFL MVP.
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