Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC South (2022)
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Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ‘em.
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Indianapolis Colts
- The Colts are Vegas’s favorite to win the AFC South at -115, a feat they haven’t accomplished since 2014. Despite this love from Vegas, the team is only projected to score 411 points, 40 fewer than they scored a season ago.
- After the Colts added Matt Ryan to their impressive cast of 2nd-year players, Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr., many experts expect this offense to flourish in 2022. Yet, they’re only favored in 10 games to Tenessee’s 11.
- Defensively, this unit was solid in 2021, allowing just the 9th fewest points. Thanks to high-profile additions Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore, the Colts are expected to remain solid on defense. Projects have the Colts allowing 375.5, the 6th fewest points.
- Last season with Carson Wentz under the helm, this team finished with nine wins. Matt Ryan is leaps and bounds a better quarterback than Carson Wentz, so why is the win line just 9.5? The AFC South will be paying the AFC West – arguably the toughest division in football this season; The Colts’ strength of schedule is the 7th hardest this season.
- I see the Colts being significantly better on both sides of the ball in 2022. The only true competition in the AFC South this year for the Colts is the Titans, who took too many steps backward for me to consider.
Bet: At -115, the Colts to win the AFC South is the best value.
Tenessee Titans
- The Titans have won back-to-back division titles but had the blessing of only competing with Indianapolis the past two seasons. Last season, the Colts had a better Pythagorean win total (10.58) than the Titans (10.17), but the Colts were stuck with Carson Wentz (who was very quickly traded in the offseason).
- As stated above, the Titans took too many steps backward while the Colts took too many steps forward for me to be interested in this unit. The Titans are projected to have fewer points scored, more points allowed, and a lower Pythagorean win total than the Colts.
- It’s possible the Titans remain a top-notch team, but considering their 9th toughest schedule, including four games against the AFC West, it’s tough to find any value in their futures.
Bet: At -110, the Titans to miss the playoffs is just barely their highest-value play.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- The Jaguars are favored against just two teams this season: the Houston Texans and the New York Giants. The good news for the Jaguars is that with the addition of Christian Kirk, the return of Travis Etienne, and new head coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars are expected to score 111 more points (364) than they scored in 2021 (253). This is the largest swing of any team in Vegas’ projections.
- Although the Jaguars’ offense is in a situation to be the best since 2016, this team is in a position where winning seven games is their ceiling. The Jaguars are still expected to allow the 3rd-most points in the league (430.5) after allowing the 5th-most last season (457), giving them a Pythagorean win total of 6.8.
Bet: I expect Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to take a step forward this season, but even with the juice, I’d lean under 6.5.
Houston Texans
- I am incredibly bullish on Davis Mills, and I think he and Brandin Cooks are poised for a fantastic fantasy season. But with my bias aside, this team is projected to score the fewest points (327.25) in 2022, about 3 points per game higher than their 280 total in 2021.
- On top of being projected to score the fewest points in 2022, the Texans are also projected the most points allowed (442.75).
- As if that’s not bad enough, the Texans aren’t favored to win a single game in 2022.
Bet: For futures purposes, avoid this team at all costs. I definitely think Vegas projects too little of this team in 2022, but being favored in 0 games is all you need to know. Lean under 4.5 wins if you must, but the Texans have the 2nd most wins-over-expected (1.08) using the Pythagorean expected wins formula.
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