Top MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, July 20th (2021)

Jul 20, 2021 - 11:40 AM

A bettor who does their due diligence when betting games will undoubtedly look at the home/road splits of a team and factor that into their wagers. However, many bettors that wager on games do not know how profitable or not profitable teams are. The Colorado Rockies’ home/road splits have been night and day this year, as they have 23 more wins at Coors Field than they do on the road. But more importantly for bettors, this is how Colorado’s splits break down from a money standpoint and is one of the biggest reasons we are siding with them tonight.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 111-97-4 (+1.10 units)

Philadelphia Phillies ML (-125)

The Philadelphia Phillies are 10-4 in their last ten games and have made up three games on the first-place Mets in that span. This is a critical two-week stretch before the trade deadline for Philadelphia, as President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has been known to be aggressive at the deadline when he feels he has a contender. They have won each of their last four series, which includes series wins over the Red Sox and Padres, and they split a four-game series with the first-place Mets, where the bullpen blew both games that they lost. So it suffices to say Dombrowski and the rest of the Phillies brass feel they have a contender.

The Phillies will look to back up that sentiment against a Yankees team that they swept in a mini-two game series at home in mid-June. Philadelphia is now 4-1 in their last five games against the Yankees, including winning five of their previous seven at Yankee Stadium. 

When the Yankees took the field in their series finale over the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball, their outfield was Trey Amburgey, Ryan Lamarre, and Greg Allen. Combined with Chris Gittens at first base and Roughned Odor at second, that is not exactly a Murderer’s Row. Look for Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.53) to pitch more like the ace he was counted on to be for this team while not having to deal with New York’s biggest bats like Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit, and a host of other Yankees who are on the IL.

Toronto Blue Jays First Five Innings (-175)

Baseball bettors are some of the biggest over-reactors around. Many will point to their 13-4 last night to the Red Sox and blindly hop on Boston’s back tonight. However, as Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver once said, “Momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher.” In what will likely be a heavy contrarian play tonight, we are glad to back the Blue Jays over the first five innings.

Toronto’s Alek Manoah (2-1, 2.90) makes his ninth Major League start and second against the Red Sox. In his first appearance against Boston, he held them to one run on four hits over six innings. He has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his eight starts and has thrown at least 88 pitches in five of his last six starts. With the confidence that he is stretched out enough to go at least five innings, this play takes Toronto’s poor 19th-ranked bullpen in terms of WAR out of the equation.

The Blue Jays will look to jump on Boston’s Garrett Richards (5-5, 4.91) early and often. Richards has pitched to a 7.11 ERA in his last seven starts and has allowed ten earned runs in 16.2 combined innings against Toronto this year. The Blue Jays must see the ball well against Richards, as evidenced by their ten drawn walks compared to ten strikeouts. They have done all that damage to Richards despite not hitting a single home run off him, yet Richards has had trouble limiting the damage against them.

The over is 5-0 in Richards’ last five starts against teams from the AL East, and we are hoping that that trend means plenty of runs for Toronto early.

Colorado Rockies -1.5 runs (+100)

There is no starting pitcher in baseball hotter than Colorado’s German Marquez at the moment. The Rockies tweeted this before his last outing against the Padres, and all Marquez (8-6, 3.36) did to follow up those ridiculous numbers was throw seven shutout innings and hold San Diego to three hits while striking out nine.

The Rockies are just 4-12 after a day off, which may explain why their moneyline odds are not much steeper with their red-hot ace on the mound. Seattle counters with Marco Gonzales (1-5, 5.88), who has not won a start since April 15th. Gonzales has allowed five home runs in his last nine innings, which is not a good recipe for success in homer-friendly Coors Field.

Colorado has reveled in the favorite role, going 13-3 in their last 16 games as favorites. They are 10-3 in their previous 13 home games against a left-handed starter and are 9-3 in their previous 12 meetings with Seattle. Behind Marquez, the Rockies should win this one with ease.

MLB Prop Bets

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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