Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 21st (2021)

Jul 21, 2021 - 11:54 AM

After spending the majority of the baseball season in the black, a recent cold spell has left us in the red momentarily. Yesterday’s two incorrect picks were a product of the Phillies losing to the Yankees’ injury-plagued lineup, and the hottest pitcher in baseball (German Marquez) getting tagged at home by the Mariners. Such are the ebbs and flows of sports betting, but all we can do is continue with our sound logic and trust that the positive results return.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 111-97-4 (-0.90 units)

Cincinnati Reds ML (+120)

The Cincinnati Reds have ended a four-game losing streak last night, and look to rebound from a home sweep of the rival Brewers by earning a series win over a first-place team. They face New York Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, who is arguably the team’s best healthy pitcher at the moment. However, the Mets have struggled with Stroman on the mound recently, going 0-5 in his last five starts as a favorite. Thus, we look for the underdog Reds to take the final game of this three-game series.

Stroman (6-8, 2.79) is winless in his last six starts, and his ERA, WHIP, OBA, and K:BB ratio are all worse in his eight day starts than his 11 starts at night. He has made just one career start at the Great American Ball Park but lasted just 4.2 innings and walked three Reds while striking out two.

The Reds counter with Jeff Hoffman (3-4, 4.61), who is making his first start since May 26th after nursing a shoulder injury. Before the injury, Hoffman’s splits were night and day at home compared to on the road. He is 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA at home but is 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA on the road. He has allowed just four earned runs in 14 innings in day starts and should be excited to take on the first-place Mets in his first game back.

The Mets are 16-7 in their last 23 games in Cincinnati but are too overvalued as road favorites in this matchup, considering they have struggled so much with Stroman on the mound.

Kansas City Royals Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (+105)

The Milwaukee Brewers have a tremendous “big three” of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta in their starting rotation. When one of them does not pitch, the rest of Milwaukee’s starting rotation seems to be overlooked. However, Kansas City does not hit lefties well, so the Brewers’ Eric Lauer should be very much in line for an “under the radar” successful start.

The Royals are 0-5 in their last five road games against a left-handed starter. They rank in the bottom half of the league in OPS and slugging against lefties, but those numbers are even worse in the last 30 days, as they rank just 26th in OPS. They face Milwaukee’s Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83), who has allowed just one earned run on seven hits in 12 innings over his last two home starts. He does a great job of keeping the ball in the yard, as he has allowed a home run in just one of his last six starts. 

If Milwaukee can jump on Brad Keller (6-9, 5.97), it could deflate Kansas City early and will make them less urgent at the plate. That is a genuine possibility, considering Keller is 0-5 with a 6.64 ERA in his last seven starts.

The under is 5-0 in Milwaukee’s last five games as a home favorite, which has us liking our chances that the visitor’s run total is kept in check tonight.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+110)

We take our shot at a second underdog today, facing a starting pitcher that is overvalued based on his recent performances. The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Madison Bumgarner, who is making his second start since coming off the IL. Bumgarner (4-6, 5.35) performed well his last time out but received a hard-luck loss after surrendering just one earned run on two hits over six innings against the Cubs. Still, Arizona is 0-5 in Bumgarner’s last five starts, and we are happy to fade a poor Diamondbacks team as favorites given this trend.

Arizona comes into this game on a three-game winning streak and has won four consecutive games just once all year, from April 18-22. Though they are playing better of late, it is hard to ignore their 10-25 record in their last 35 home games and 11-46 record in their previous 57 overall.

Though Pittsburgh has been terrible offensively this season, they rank sixth in batting average against lefties in the last month and are 14th in OPS in that same span. The Pirates turn to Chad Kuhl (3-5, 4.31), he has won three of his last four decisions and makes the Pirates an attractive ‘dog today.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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