Top MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, July 27th (2021)

Jul 27, 2021 - 10:27 AM

Though there are three more days until the trade deadline, several deals involving big names have already been made, like Nelson Cruz to the Rays and Adam Frazier to the Padres. One of our top three plays takes a trade deadline deal into account, as we hope to gain an edge value-wise before oddsmakers take notice and correct the market.

In somewhat of a scheduling quirk, there are five interleague games on today’s schedule. The other ten games that do not involve teams from each league are all between divisional opponents. Thus, that means there is likely some value in certain lines as divisional teams are well familiar with each other at this point in the season.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 115-104-5 (-4.07 units)

Baltimore Orioles First Five Innings ML (+110)

If one were to make a list of things that have gone wrong with Baltimore’s season thus far, the list would likely be too long to count. However, they are potentially sitting on a gold mine with a young pitcher that most casual fans have probably never heard of.

Spenser Watkins (2-0, 1.65) is making his fifth appearance (fourth start) tonight, and the beginning of his career has been nothing short of stellar. Watkins’ last two starts have been against two of the American League’s best teams (White Sox and Rays), and he held them to two runs on eight hits in 10.1 combined innings. He struck out a career-high seven batters in his last start, and his six innings suggest he is getting closer to being fully stretched out.

The Marlins counter with Sandy Alcantara (5-9, 3.23), whose ERA, WHIP, OBA, and K:BB ratio is significantly worse in his ten road starts than his ten starts at home. Alcantara has just one win in his last three road starts and faces an Orioles team that has averaged almost five runs per game over their last nine home games.

Baltimore has won three straight games and is 6-2 in their last eight games overall. They were a blown save when they had Tampa Bay down to their final out away from winning three series in a row. The Orioles will be motivated to win their fourth consecutive game, which they have not done all season. Since we do not trust Baltimore’s bullpen, the safer bet is to wager on them holding the lead after five innings. Miami is just 2-8 as road favorites this year, so we like them to stumble out of the gates once again.

Brewers-Pirates UNDER 8.5 runs (-105)

The Milwaukee Brewers rank third in baseball with a 3.34 team ERA. They now face a Pirates lineup that traded away their best hitter in Adam Frazier, who leads the majors with 125 hits and is fourth with a .324 batting average. Pittsburgh has a hard enough time scoring as it is, as their 367 runs rank last in the majors, and they rank 17th or worse in every other major statistical hitting category. With Milwaukee starting one of their more unheralded pitchers, we are getting tremendous value with this under.

Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.26) has held current Pirates to one extra-base hit in 34 combined plate appearances and a .125 batting average and .156 slugging percentage. Though the over is 5-1 in their last six home games against a left-handed starter, their 1-8 record in their previous nine home games after a road trip of seven days or more suggests their offense could be sluggish.

Pittsburgh counters with Tyler Anderson (5-8, 4.35), who has held current Brewers hitters to a .194 batting average of his own. He held Milwaukee scoreless through seven innings in a July 4th start, and we look for him to replicate those numbers tonight.

Astros-Mariners UNDER 8 runs (+100)

The Astros and Mariners have a history of playing low-scoring games recently. The under is 6-2-1 in their last nine meetings in Seattle and is 9-3-1 in their previous 13 meetings overall. In a matchup between two solid starting pitchers, another game with minimal offense is what we expect.

Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr. (7-2, 3.04) is 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA in seven road starts this year. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last three road starts. He held the White Sox’s usually potent offense to one run on two hits over seven innings and struck out a season-high ten batters in his previous start away from home. Seattle’s Chris Flexen (9-4, 3.35) is 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA in his last seven starts. He has been lights out at home all year with a 1.89 ERA in 11 home starts and has allowed just three home runs in 66.2 home innings.

The under is 4-2 in Houston’s last six road games against teams with a winning record and is 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven home games. Consider this a contrarian play after last night’s 11-8 slugfest.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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