Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, July 30th (2021)

Jul 30, 2021 - 10:51 AM

The day that many fans have been anticipating for several weeks now is here. No more buzz and no more rumors, as the trade deadline will end in the next 24 hours. Joey Gallo, Starling Marte, Kendall Graveman. Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Anthony Rizzo have already been dealt. Will other big names be on the move today?  What will the NL West picture look like with the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres all seemingly in the market for the game’s remaining biggest names? It should be an exciting day and one that could alter the playoff picture significantly.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 118-109-5 (-5.76 units)

Miami Marlins Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-110)

A day after the New York Yankees were rocked for 14 runs by the Tampa Bay Rays, including seven runs charged to ace Gerrit Cole, many bettors will likely give the Miami Marlins’ betting odds a long look. Miami is coming off an off day and has scored at least seven runs in each of their last three games. However, two of those games were against MLB’s worst pitching staff in the Baltimore Orioles, and the Marlins now face a Yankees pitcher whose last four starts have largely gone unnoticed.

Jameson Taillon (6-4, 4.36) has made three consecutive starts against first-place teams in the Astros and Red Sox. Going back one start further against a potential playoff team in the Mariners, Taillon is 3-0 and has allowed just four earned runs in 25.1 combined innings. Three of those starts came on the road, and Taillon has allowed just two earned runs in that span.

Taillon faces a Marlins team that ranks 28th in OPS and runs scored in home games. Miami traded away one of their best hitters in Starling Marte and are still without Jazz Chisholm Jr. (10-day IL) and Garrett Cooper, who underwent season-ending surgery.

The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight interleague games against a right-handed starter, and the under is 7-1 in their previous eight interleague home games against righties. Thus, both of these trends suggest another low-scoring night is in store for Miami.

Milwaukee Brewers ML (-140)

The Atlanta Braves return home with momentum after taking a five-game series from the Mets. Atlanta now sits at 51-52 and is looking to get to .500 for the second time since they were 24-24 on May 25. However, considering Atlanta has not spent a day this season over .500, another disappointment seems imminent.

Atlanta’s offense managed just nine total runs in four games against the Mets, which surrounded a 12-run barrage on Tuesday. The Braves have been held to two or fewer runs in five of their last eight games and are being carried offensively at the moment by Austin Riley, who had four home runs in the Mets series. However, Atlanta will need other hitters to contribute when facing Milwaukee’s top-shelf pitching staff, starting with Corbin Burnes in the series opener.

Burnes (6-4, 2.12) ranks second in the majors in ERA, is tied for fourth with 146 strikeouts, and is fifth with a 0.90 WHIP. Burnes has allowed nine earned runs in 2.2 combined innings over three relief appearances against Atlanta. However, this is his first start against them, and Burnes looked nothing like the pitcher of prior years. He is opposed by Touki Toussaint (1-1, 1.32), who has allowed just two earned runs through his first 13.2 innings this year. However, we are getting tremendous value with Burnes on the mound and are willing to fade Toussaint’s hot start, given the small sample size.

Atlanta has won each of Toussaint’s last five home starts, but this is the night that streak comes to an end.

Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-105)

The Chicago White Sox should be thankful that they play in a poor division, as their recent stretch of poor play has done nothing to jeopardize their status as likely division champs. Chicago just lost three of four to the Royals and has not won any of their last three series. However, heading home to face an injury-plagued Cleveland team should be just what they need to build momentum.

The White Sox are 7-1-1 in their last nine home series and is a big reason why a Major League-best 35-17 at home this year. Tonight’s starting pitcher, Lance Lynn, is gaining serious steam in the AL CY Young race. Lynn (10-3, 1.91) has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his last five starts. He went 1-1 with a 4.09 in consecutive starts against Cleveland on April 15 and May 1 but is facing a much different lineup now, including one that traded Cesar Hernandez to his team.

There is perhaps no greater pitching mismatch between these two teams than the one tonight, as the White Sox face Indians rookie J.C. Mejia. Mejia (1-6, 7.52) is 0-5 with an 8.44 ERA in his last seven starts and has given up seven home runs in his previous four starts. He has faced a murderous slate of teams in his last four starts, facing the Astros and Rays twice each but will get no relief against the White Sox.

Cleveland is 0-4 in Mejia’s last four starts, so we are willing to wager on the favorite’s runline for added value.

MLB Prop Bets

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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