Top MLB Betting Picks For Tuesday, August 10th (2021)

Aug 10, 2021 - 12:46 PM

After a 1-0-1 Saturday on the best bets slate, we’re back on a Tuesday evening with two more hopeful winners.

The Rays pushed our first five innings bet against Baltimore on Saturday, but the Red Sox cashed as a +140 underdog when they defeated Toronto in the second half of a doubleheader.

On Tuesday’s edition, we’ve got a moneyline play on a team whose value is immense, but not for long, and an over that’s definite to climb. Make sure you get those bets in before it’s too late. Without further delay, here are my best bets for August 10^th.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Detroit Tigers ML (-110)

This one opened up with the Tigers +105 on the moneyline, which is where I bet it. But I would bet this one down to -115, so this line is still very much in play. Detroit is a very underrated team, especially at the plate, and I think they’ve got a clear advantage over the home team in this matchup. Let’s dive in.

Casey Mize will take the hill for the Tigers. He’s been excellent since the first month of the season, and aside from a couple of four-run outings in the last few weeks, he has looked every bit like the future ace Detroit drafted him to be. The right-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in 15 of his last 17 starts and has allowed one run or less in nine of his last 17. He hasn’t been dominant in the strikeout department, which has distracted bettors from realizing how strongly he’s pitched. Mize has also had success against Baltimore, especially in his last outing just a few starts ago.

On July 29^th, Mize dominated the Orioles, earning the win by shutting Baltimore out across seven innings of work. Lifetime, the Orioles are hitting just .190 against Mize. It won’t be easy for them to string together anything of substance, considering they’re hitting just .243 over the last 30 days, good for just 21^st in all of baseball.

Conversely, the Tigers have been quietly putting together gaudy numbers at the plate over the last month. They’re ninth in baseball with a .257 average, and they’ll face Keegan Akin on Tuesday, who has struggled mightily all year long. Akin is 0-5 on the year with an ERA of 7.66 and has been unable to stay in the rotation, making just eight starts in his 15 appearances.

He’s allowed at least five runs in each of his last four starts and won’t exactly have the offense to back him up if he struggles out of the gate in this one. The Orioles averaged just 4.16 runs per game, which ranks ninth from the bottom in all of baseball. Detroit’s key struggle at the plate has been their propensity to strike out – they’re 27^th in the league in strikeouts per game – but Akin is in just the 21^st percentile in strikeout rate and 27^th percentile in whiff rate; swings and misses won’t be a problem on Tuesday for the Tigers, so runs should be aplenty.

Despite being on the road, this matchup favors the Tigers, and the sharps are starting to take all the value out of the moneyline. Jump on this number before it’s too late.

Colorado Rockies / Houston Astros Over 9 (-110)

This is another line that moved, but one that still has value down to -120. If the total climbs to 9.5 runs, I won’t advocate betting the over unless it was at even money or better.

Colorado will send Jon Gray to the mound. He’s had his difficulties against the Astros lifetime, despite getting the win against them earlier in the year. Houston is hitting .267 off Gray for his career with an expected batting average of .299 and a strikeout rate just barely over 10% (11.4%). The Astros also don’t strike out often this year – they’re tops in baseball with just 7.62 whiffs per game – and while Gray may not be the prototypical strikeout pitcher, he’s still racked up 101 on the season. It’ll be tough to utilize the swing and miss pitch against this tough lineup, and balls in play will inflate Gray’s pitch count and allow the Astros to feast on Colorado’s suspect bullpen, which is second-to-last in the league with a brutal 5.45 ERA.

Jake Odorizzi will start for the Astros, and the Rockies have feasted off him lifetime. Rockies hitters have a .333 batting average off the Houston right-hander in his career, and that number isn’t a fluke. Their expected batting average is a nearly-as-high .320 with a strikeout rate of just 14.7%. Given the low strikeout rates of these two pitchers against their expected opponents, look for a lot of balls in play – a huge advantage for the over.

Combined, these two teams average 9.98 runs per game, nearly a full run over the total here. In a hitter’s park like Houston, I think we’re getting strong value on the over, despite it climbing a half-run since opening.

MLB Prop Bets

• George Springer Prop Bet Odds
• Rhys Hoskins Prop Bet Odds
• Jesse Winker Prop Bet Odds
• Pete Alonso Prop Bet Odds
• Austin Riley Prop Bet Odds

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.

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