MLB Futures: Best Bets to Win the World Series (2021)

Aug 18, 2021 - 8:57 PM

If you followed our columns in the last two weeks of who we like to represent the American League and National League in the World Series, then you know our predicted World Series matchup is the Houston Astros against the San Francisco Giants. As of this writing, DraftKings is offering +1800 odds on this specific scenario.

We have gone through various reasons why all the other teams in each league should be eliminated from contention for the pennant. Our task in this article is to determine the best bet to win the 2021 World Series.

Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for the MLB World Series Winner >>

Will it be the Astros or Giants?

The Houston Astros are currently in a funk, losing three straight games to teams with a losing record. However, they are still in the driver’s seat in the American League despite only getting 59 games from Alex Bregman. In addition, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Yordan Alvarez have combined to miss 63 other games. Given that they are second in the majors with a .777 OPS and lead the majors in runs scored, it is fair to say their lineup is stacked when fully healthy.

Despite their rash of injuries and not appearing as loaded as they have been over the last couple of years, Houston has gotten to where they are not just by outlasting an inferior division but also by dominating the elite competition. Their .597 winning percentage against winning teams is by far the best in the majors. To put that in perspective, just two National League teams (Giants and Padres) have winning records against teams over .500. They have the playoff pedigree to make a run, with World Series experience littered up and down their roster.

That being said, they have not been the best team in baseball for the entire season like the Giants have. Already the best team at the trade deadline, they made one of the most significant deals at the trade deadline (outside of L.A. acquiring Max Scherzer and Trea Turner) by lengthening their lineup with the addition of Kris Bryant. Bryant’s slash lines are a ridiculous .321/.377/.571. He has had multi-hit games in five of his 15 games with the Giants, with at least one hit in all but four. In addition, Evan Longoria is now healthy, which means San Francisco can use Bryant’s versatility in the field to its full potential.

The biggest difference between these two teams is the depth of their starting pitching. San Francisco’s 3.33 team ERA ranks third in the majors. While Houston’s is a respectable fifth at 3.65, the Astros teams in the past have been able to rely on dominant frontline pitchers like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole to get them through a playoff series. Their top two starters are Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr., who are not as intimidating as the guys they have had in prior years.

San Francisco’s Kevin Gausman (12-5, 2.40) is a bonafide Cy Young candidate and are followed up by guys like Anthony DeSclafani (11-5, 3.29) and Logan Webb (7-3, 2.92) who are having career years or veterans like Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.89) who should be unflappable in the playoffs. The Giants are the only N.L. team with three players in the top-15 in WAR (Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Kevin Gausman) and will be relied upon heavily to get the team through an upcoming tough stretch of games. San Francisco has navigated its challenging waters well so far and still leads the Dodgers by four games in the N.L. West. They do not play a team with a losing record again until September 6th but are well-built to succeed through that stretch and hold off the hard-charging Dodgers who are dealing with issues (injuries and suspensions) of their own.

Many of the Giants’ core players have won a World Series ring, and them culminating the season with a World Series this season should not be thought of as a fluke just because they had lower preseason expectations. On the contrary, they have been the best team all season, and we should be thankful that oddsmakers are still giving us 10:1 odds to win the championship.

Back 2 Back
Belt 2 Bryant pic.twitter.com/UMuuR0yAxR

— SFGiants (@SFGiants) August 17, 2021

Best Bet to Win the World Series: San Francisco Giants (+1000)

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