Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, August 25th (2021)

Aug 25, 2021 - 11:39 AM

Will the Baltimore Orioles, losers of 19 consecutive games, win another game this season? Will the Yankees, winners of 11 straight games, lose another game? With 35+ games to go, the answer to those questions is obviously “yes.” However, not all sellers at the trade deadline have rolled over like Baltimore. The Nationals have won four of their last six games, and the Pirates have won back-to-back contests. Even the Rangers won on the road yesterday for just the 16th time all season. Just about the only sure thing nowadays is that the Rockies and Diamondbacks both stink on the road. 

There are no easy days in baseball betting, and we remain thankful and fortunate that we have had a profitable season to this point. 

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 141-121-7 (+4.01 units)

Tampa Bay Rays Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-105)

The Tampa Bay Rays are baseball’s highest-scoring team in August, as their 139 runs scored this month are 12 more than the second-best team. Tampa Bay has scored at least seven runs in 13 of their last 17 games. However, those numbers are a bit skewed as seven of those games came against the hapless Orioles. Philadelphia showed the ability to slow down the Rays offense in the series opener last night and should be able to do so again with Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler on the mound. 

Wheeler (10-8, 2.77) has struggled lately, allowing four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. However, just one of those starts came at home, where he has dominated with a 2.25 ERA (third-best in baseball) in 15 starts. He has a whopping 122 strikeouts in 104 innings at home this year and has a .191 OBA (fourth-best among qualified starters) to go with a 0.83 WHIP. Wheeler has been especially tough on lefties, as his .304 slugging percentage allowed to left-handed batters is tenth-best among qualified starting pitchers this season. 

The under is 5-0 in Wheeler’s last five starts against teams with a winning record and is 8-0 in his last eight home starts. These trends have us confident he will rebound from a rough last couple of weeks and shut down the Rays tonight.

Nationals-Marlins UNDER 8 runs (-115)

The Miami Marlins have their offense to blame for much of their current eight-game losing streak. They have scored just 20 runs in that span, nine of which came in one loss to Atlanta. Miami’s .679 OPS entering Tuesday was the third-lowest in baseball, but their .282 slugging percentage over the last seven days is the league’s worst.

Miami faces promising rookie Josiah Gray (0-1, 3.90), who has pitched to a 2.86 in four August starts despite facing stiff competition in the Blue Jays, Braves (twice), and the Phillies. 

The wild card in this wager is Miami’s Edward Cabrera (0-0, 0.00), who is making his Major League debut. This year, Cabrera went 3-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 13 starts through three different minor league levels. He has immense strikeout potential, as he amassed 361 strikeouts in 341 innings in five seasons in the minors. We have an affinity to young rookies making their debuts, as opposing hitters have not had an opportunity to face them live or scout them well. This gives the pitcher a considerable advantage in his first couple of starts, and we expect Cabrera to pitch well.

Washington’s unfamiliarity with Cabrera coupled with Miami’s deficiencies offensively has us liking a low-scoring game tonight.

San Diego Padres Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-135)

While one Cy Young candidate toes the rubber for Philadelphia, another, and perhaps more deserving candidate, starts for the Dodgers. Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.11) has pitched like a man possessed with eight consecutive quality starts. He has not allowed more than three earned runs since May 11 and has at least eight strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. 

Buehler held the Padres to two earned runs in back-to-back starts in April, taking the no-decision in both. He has not received much run support of late, but that has made him focus more and be effective with each pitch. 

Buehler is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego and has 18 strikeouts in 17 career innings at Petco Park. Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes was roughed up in yesterday’s start, and Buehler knows a solid start will give him some breathing room in the Cy Young voting. San Diego has struggled lately, losing ten of their last 12 games. Buehler will add to those struggles tonight. 

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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