Top MLB Betting Picks For Saturday, September 4th (2021)

Sep 4, 2021 - 12:54 PM

It’s the final month of the baseball season, which means there’s just a few more editions of Saturday’s best bets left before the playoffs and eventually the offseason. September baseball isn’t like the September baseball we remember from the past few decades, however.

Instead of the rosters expanding to the ridiculous 40-man size as they had in the past, teams will be allowed just two extra slots and a five-man taxi squad. This cuts down on substitutions, but more importantly, puts all 30 teams on a level playing field. As in the past, teams with minor league affiliates making deep playoff runs had rosters much shorter than those who could utilize the full 40.

Luckily for bettors like us, the smaller September rosters throw fewer variables into the equation. Sure, we still have to consider that some teams are giving their prospects a deeper look and thus may not have the strongest lineup on the field every night, but there’s certainly less of a risk with just two extra players on the bench.

Saturday’s slate is a loaded one, and my two best bets feature afternoon games. So let’s sweep this card and start the final month of the season on a hot streak.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Over 6.5 (-115)

At first glance, a total of 6.5 runs seems like a mistake, but this is the first game of a doubleheader, so we’re only looking at seven innings. These two teams aren’t exactly the strongest hitting teams in the league – Washington has scored the 18th-most runs per game, and the Mets are second from the bottom – but this late in the season, divisional games tend to trend towards the over. Especially when hitters have had this much exposure to the pitchers they’ll be facing, and that’s exactly the scenario we have here.

For starters, most bettors will gravitate towards unders in seven-inning games just because the game is shorter. If you consider the average total for a nine-inning game is 8.5, and this total is 6.5 in a seven-inning game, we’re expecting the same number of runs per inning to hit this over. Don’t be scared off by a shorter game. Make sure to evaluate the line in full. In this case, seven innings is plenty of time to combine for seven runs.

Marcus Stroman will take the mound for the Mets, and he’s had perhaps his best year as a pro. His 9-12 record and the fact that the Mets have been surrounded by all types of news this year – especially of late – has distracted from the fact that Stroman has been easily their best pitcher besides Jacob deGrom when he was healthy. But Stroman has faced the Nationals three times already this year and twice in his last four starts. Make that three times in his last five starts come Saturday. That’s a lot of exposure for the Nationals, and it’s given them plenty of time to calculate an approach to combat how Stroman wants to attack them.

Stroman’s results also haven’t been great against Washington to begin with this year. In April, the Nationals lit him up to the tune of five runs (four earned) on eight hits in just four innings. Two starts ago, Stroman was excellent and allowed just a run on three hits, but the Nationals worked the count nearly every time up and chased Stroman after just 5.1 innings. And last Sunday, Stroman flirted with trouble all night long, allowing seven hits but managing to escape with just two runs on his ledger. Lifetime, Washington is hitting .303 off Stroman across 83 plate appearances, so he hasn’t exactly performed well against this lineup.

Erick Fedde will start for the Nationals, and he’s not only been poor against the Mets but also had a tough year overall. His ERA is over five, and it’s been over five after 13 of his 22 starts this year. Ouch – not something you want from a former first-round pick. In his career, the Mets are hitting him at a .287 clip, so perhaps not as lofty as Stroman but still nothing to be proud of from Fedde’s perspective.

And like Stroman, Fedde has faced his next opponent a lot this year. Saturday’s outing will be Fedde’s fifth against New York already and his third in the last five starts. In the previous four outings, Fedde recorded just one quality start, and in the last matchup, he allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits. The over is 6-3-1 in Washington’s last 10 games, and the Mets are surprisingly 33-30-2 to the over on the road this year. I would play this over down to -125 and not play it if the number moves to seven.

Boston Red Sox F5 -0.5 (-115)

Oddly enough, this is another pitching matchup where both starters faced off against each other in their last outing. In this meeting between Tanner Houck of the Red Sox and Eli Morgan of the Indians, I expect inverted results from their August 29th meeting.

In that game, Morgan lasted just three innings but held Boston to two runs – helping lead Cleveland to a 7-5 victory. However, that doesn’t tell the full story. The Red Sox expected slugging percentage in that matchup was .651. They were hitting the ball hard, just right at the fielders. And that’s not out of the ordinary for Boston – they’re second in baseball in OPS and third in wRC+ over the last month. With a soft-thrower like Morgan on the mound who is in just the 14th percentile in fastball velocity and 27th percentile in hard-hit rate, the floodgates could open quickly in this one for the Red Sox.

Boston will send Tanner Houck to the mound, and if you’ve followed my best bets all year, Houck is a pitcher I like to bet on because he’s relatively unknown, but he’s got electric stuff. And because few in the market have seen Houck pitch or have a lot of details on him, Boston’s price when he pitches is usually full of value. Saturday is another example of that.

Houck was solid last time against Cleveland, allowing three runs in 5.1 innings, but let’s dig deeper. Houck allowed just one hit, which is obviously very good, and carried a no-hitter through five frames. His bugaboo was giving out free passes. Houck walked four hitters, which is a huge outlier on his game log sheet. Through his first 10 appearances this year, Houck issued just eight total walks. He may not have great control, but he’s got swing-and-miss stuff, which forces batters to chase, and limits walks. Houck is in the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate and 78th percentile in walk rate.

I expect Houck to return to his usual form against the Indians on Saturday, a lineup that is hitting just .071 against him in two meetings, and I’m looking for Boston’s bats to come out hot right in the thick of a playoff race. I would play this one down to -125, and if it goes steeper than that, pivot to Boston -1.5 on the full game run line.

MLB Prop Bets

View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.

The post Top MLB Betting Picks For Saturday, September 4th (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.








No one has shouted yet.
Be the first!

Related News