Top MLB Betting Picks For Saturday, September 25th (2021)

Sep 25, 2021 - 9:53 AM

This season seems like it absolutely flew by. Just like that, there are just three series remaining for nearly every team, which means just two betting Saturdays left of the regular season. It feels like all eyes are on the American League Wild Card race, and for good reason. Three AL East division rivals are fighting for just two spots, and not only that – they’re battling to see who’ll be the home team.

To make things more interesting, the Yankees and Red Sox still have two more games against each other, tonight and Sunday, with the winner of the series putting a strong grip on one of the two open Wild Card spots. Don’t forget about the Blue Jays, though. They’ve got perhaps the Cy Young frontrunner in Robbie Ray, and a lineup that boasts the third-best run differential in the American League. They’re not going down quietly, that’s for sure.

Now that we’ve set the stage, let’s dive into this Saturday’s best bets. I’ve got a total and a run line on tap, one of which may involve a matchup I’ve already highlighted.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Boston Red Sox / New York Yankees Under 10.5 (-110)

This number is sky-high for all the wrong reasons. First is public perception, of course. It’s a Yankees vs. Red Sox game – who wants to bet the under in a game where the two teams are built around their lineups? Secondly, we’ve got some recency bias. Boston has been absolutely destroying teams in those hideous yellow uniforms, reeling off seven wins in a row coming into this series before last night’s loss, and averaging 8.4 runs per game in the process. That’s a gaudy number, but keep in mind that the last five games of that run came against the Orioles and Mets.

There’s some recency bias surrounding the Yankees too. They entered this series on a three-game win streak of their own, piling up 18 runs across those three games – 14 of which came in the final two matchups. Again, look at the competition. They played Texas in the Bronx. And of course, there was last night, where 11 runs were scored in an 8-3 Yankees victory over Boston, but that was an outlier.

Recently, the under has been the play when these teams meet. Unders are 11-6 this season in Yankees vs. Red Sox games, which is already a great trend for us, but consider that of the six overs, just two were at Fenway Park. What’s more: had the total been set at the 10.5 number tonight’s game is set at, the under would be 14-3.

This is obviously a humongous game for both teams. Playoff berths are on the line. Neither manager is going to leave their starter on the mound one batter too long or bring in a struggling reliever in a key spot. We’re going to see intensity, and we’re going to get both teams’ best. Runs will be at a premium. 

And while Boston’s starter Nick Pivetta has had a bit of an up-and-down year, look for him to be able to control New York’s bats early. Despite the Yankees’ offensive outburst last night they’re just 20th in team batting average over the last month, and I know there are more important stats than average, but if you want to add in wRC+ and OPS, they’re 12th and 13th, respectively. Not bad, but well below where they should be with that lineup. 

What most bettors are probably worried about is Nestor Cortes Jr. – New York’s starter. Don’t be. You might not have heard of him, but he’s easily been one of the Yankees’ three best starters this season.

Lowest AL ERA since May 30th (Min. 50 IP)

1. Robbie Ray (2.15)
2. Nestor Cortes (2.60)
3. Carlos Rodon (3.08)
4. Cal Quantril (3.10)
5. Lance McCullers (3.21)

— New York Yankees Stats (@nyyankeesstats) September 16, 2021

Cortes has started 12 games this year and just once has he allowed more than three runs. Just three times has he allowed more than two runs, as a matter of fact. He’s not going to overpower you, but since mid-August, he’s found his strikeout pitch. Over his last seven starts, he’s striking out 10.7 hitters per nine – which over the course of the regular season would tie him for seventh in all of baseball with Yu Darvish and Brandon Woodruff.

Don’t fall into the trap on this one, take the under, but no lower than 10.5 runs.

Detroit Tigers -1.5 Runs (+155)

We don’t take a ton of run-line bets on Saturdays, but today is an exception. I’m riding the red-hot Tigers against a Royals starter who’s making just the second big-league appearance of his career.

Quietly, the Tigers have had a very nice season, and despite being out of the playoff hunt, they’re still playing for something: a winning record. It may not sound like much, but for a franchise that’s been really bad for a really long time, this is a sign that they finally may be turning a corner. They want to finish above .500, and their recent play proves that.

Coming into this weekend’s set against Kansas City, the Tigers had won four games in a row, and they ripped off those wins against two of the best teams in the American League – the Rays and White Sox. They’re also 9-3 in their last 12 games, with eight of their nine wins coming against the aforementioned Rays and White Sox, but also the NL Central-leading Brewers.

The Tigers will be sending Tarik Skubal to the mound, and is Skubal usually a pitcher I’m itching to bet the run line on? Probably not, but Detroit has turned him into a pseudo-opener of late. His last three starts have lasted just three innings each – by design – and the Tigers are 2-1 in those games. Skubal has also been able to let it loose a little bit more, striking out 12 over those nine frames. He’ll now get to face a Royals lineup who he’s fared well against – allowing just a .221 expected batting average in his career.

On the other side, I’m fading Jon Heasley. This will be Heasley’s second career start, and the first one didn’t go all that well. He lasted just four innings against Seattle, allowing four runs on six hits – two of which left the yard. He also only struck out two hitters, so the ‘stuff’ just isn’t MLB-ready yet. The underlying metrics echo that as well. Heasley left his last start allowing a 53.3% hard hit rate and an expected batting average of .326. He’s also up straight from AA, so he’s pitching to hitters who’re far more talented than most of what he’s faced to this point in his career.

We’re getting pretty solid odds here at +155, and I don’t really expect it to move all that much, but if some of the value does drain, I like it down to +140.

MLB Prop Bets

• Bryce Harper Prop Bet Odds
• Starling Marte Prop Bet Odds
• Brandon Lowe Prop Bet Odds
• Yasmani Grandal Prop Bet Odds
• Aaron Judge Prop Bet Odds

Compare Odds Across Sportsbooks for all of Today’s Games >>

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