Top MLB Playoff Betting Picks for Wednesday, October 20th (2021)

Oct 20, 2021 - 11:31 AM

For most of Tuesday’s playoff action, it looked like the Atlanta Braves, and Boston Red Sox were going to make quick work of their opponents, as they were close to putting the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros on the brink of elimination. And just like that, each League Championship Series got a lot more interesting. The Dodgers erased a late three-run deficit and made Atlanta’s lead in the NLCS 2-1, while Houston’s bats erupted late to tie the ALCS at 2-2. So will today’s games be just as thrilling?

Here are my best bets for Wednesday’s MLB playoff action. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 193-163-8 (+13.62 units) 

Astros-Red Sox OVER 9.5 runs (-110)

If last night’s Astros-Red Sox game did not stay under the projected total, I do not know what will. The two teams combined for just three runs entering the eighth inning, and then Houston’s offense scored eight runs off the Boston bullpen over the last two innings. Oddsmakers compensated for a high-scoring series to that point by making Game 3’s total ten runs, but alas, even a double-digit total could not keep these hot offenses from cashing the under.

The over has cashed in Houston’s last seven games, including their last six games as an underdog. On the other side, the over has also cashed in Boston’s last seven games and is 6-0 in the previous six meetings between these teams. Boston had their historic streak of ten or more hits in six consecutive games snapped yesterday, the longest streak within a postseason in MLB history. However, with Xander Bogaerts’ first-inning home run yesterday, the Red Sox have already tied their franchise record of most home runs in a single postseason (20), which they last accomplished in 2003.

Nick Pivetta was dominant for Boston in Game 3, as he became the first Red Sox pitcher with 5+ IP and two or fewer hits allowed at Fenway Park since Pedro Martinez in Game 3 of the 1999 ALCS. The Red Sox will ask Chris Sale to give his team a similar performance, though he only lasted 2.2 innings in his Game 1 start. While Sale only allowed one run, Houston’s Framber Valdez was even worse, allowing three runs in his 2.2 innings in Game 1. Though the series opener only saw nine runs scored in a 5-4 Astros victory, each team’s bullpens are that much more tired and exposed. And with the backdrop of the Green Monster and the short fence in right field at Fenway, we expect this Game 5 to have even more runs scored.

Braves-Dodgers OVER 8 runs (-110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers made history last night, winning their first postseason game when trailing by three or more runs after seven innings. They had entered the game 0-83 in their previous 83 postseason games when trailing by three or more runs in the eighth inning or later. Now we get to see what kind of mental fortitude the Braves have, as they were five outs away from going up 3-0 in the series.

Perhaps playing on the emotions of L.A.’s big comeback win, oddsmakers have made the Dodgers massive -220 moneyline favorites tonight. The trends say those odds are justified, as the Dodgers are 10-0 in their last ten games against the Braves at Dodger Stadium. In addition, they often jump on Atlanta early, as the Braves have trailed after the third inning in nine of those ten games.

However, with how competitive Atlanta has been in the series, we do not expect them to roll over for Los Angeles tonight. Though there is not much value with the moneyline, the over is the safest bet. Atlanta is going with a bullpen game tonight, one day after they needed four relievers to pitch the last three innings. With how often they have had to use their bullpen through the first three games, it will be challenging to mix and match enough relievers to keep Los Angeles off the scoreboard all game.

The Dodgers counter with 20-game winner Julio Urias, who is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 15 combined regular season innings against Atlanta. However, he was unexpectedly called upon in relief in Game 2 and allowed the Dodgers to tie the game after being unable to protect a two-run lead in the eighth inning. Though that usage does not amount to more than a side bullpen session, it is still worrisome that Urias was forced into game action that he was not used to just two games ago. Thus, this eight-run total feels low.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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