Best Bet for the World Series Game 3: Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves

Oct 28, 2021 - 3:37 PM

Through two games of the World Series, the Braves-Astros matchup is starting to have the feel of one that could go the distance. Houston’s bats got to Max Fried in Game 2, as they evened the series at one game apiece. In the process, the Astros avoided the dubious distinction of becoming the 15th team in World Series history to lose their first two games at home. The win also snapped their five-game home World Series losing streak.

Despite the Braves stealing homefield advantage from the Astros, Houston has -145 moneyline futures odds to win the series (per DraftKings). However, Game 3 is a virtual pick’em as the series shifts to Atlanta. How will the fact that this game will be played in a National League ballpark affect this game?

After cashing our first two plays of the World Series, here is my best bet for Friday’s Game 3 of the World Series. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 199-164-8 (+18.57 units) 

Astros-Braves UNDER 8 runs (-105)

The first two games of the World Series have seen eight and nine runs scored, respectively, and the over/under is 1-1. So far, this has not been the explosive offensive series that many have predicted. One school of thought is that both teams had some of their best pitchers lined up for the first two games, which is why runs were down. However, we prefer to view from the standpoint that these teams’ biggest bats have been underproducing for a while.

Entering Game 2, Houston’s Jose Altuve and Alec Bregman had not done much of anything since the start of the ALCS. Altuve was batting .103 with a .492 OPS and just two extra-base hits. Bregman was hitting .185 with a .563 OPS, with just one extra-base hit and one RBI. Altuve finally got going with a double and a home run last night, but Bregman was again hitless. As a result, we do not expect either to find their groove in Game 3 in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman has been held without an extra-base hit so far through two games, and Braves hitters have combined for 24 strikeouts through the first 18 innings of this World Series.

Though Astros starter Luis Garcia is a rookie, he did not pitch much like one in his last outing. Garcia had a no-hitter going into the sixth inning of Game 6 of the ALCS against the Red Sox. He is opposed by Ian Anderson, who has pitched to a 2.25 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP so far this postseason.

It will be interesting to see what manager Dusty Baker does without the benefit of a designated hitter and how he chooses to employ Yuri Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez. While Atlanta has won their last seven games at Truist Park, we prefer to back the under in Game 3, as the under is 3-1-1 in Houston’s last five World Series road games and has cashed in six of Atlanta’s last seven games following a day off.

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