Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Thursday, April 14th (2022)

Apr 14, 2022 - 12:04 PM

If you have placed player prop bets on starting pitchers early in the season, you may have been disappointed by the manager’s quick trigger in yanking said pitcher. With Tommy John surgery so prevalent in baseball, managers are becoming more concerned with limiting pitch counts, especially early in the season, when their pitchers are not yet fully stretched out. This notion was on full display in yesterday’s Dodgers-Twins game, as Clayton Kershaw was pulled after seven innings with a perfect game intact. Thus, bettors should factor in the possibility of a pitcher not being allowed to remain in the game for very long when looking into their various player props.

Since 1901, only two pitchers have been pulled after 7+ perfect innings.

Rich Hill — 6/10/16
Clayton Kershaw — 4/13/22

The Dodgers manager in both games? Dave Roberts.

H/T @StatsBySTATS pic.twitter.com/hTAJblaA1a

— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) April 13, 2022

Back-to-back 2-1 days have us picking up momentum heading into the weekend.

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers O/U 8 

Adam Wainwright pitched brilliantly on Opening Day, holding the Royals scoreless over six innings while scattering five hits. Wainwright has never had a lot of drop-off in his career pitching on the road compared to at home. He is 100-54 (.659) in his career home starts and is 85-51 (.625) on the road.

While Wainwright’s first start was masterful, Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff’s first appearance was one to forget. Woodruff was tagged by the Cubs for seven earned runs on six hits in 3.2 innings. He also struggled with his control, hitting two batters and walking three while striking out two.

In a year where he finished fifth in the Cy Young voting, Woodruff went 0-2 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts against St. Louis last year. And while Wainwright had a winning record against Milwaukee last year, his WHIP was 1.463 in those five starts. In addition, Brewers hitters did a decent job putting the ball in play against him, as Wainwright recorded 19 strikeouts in 27.1 combined innings.

The over has cashed in all four of St. Louis’ games this year, and we look for another high-scoring game between these division rivals at hitter-friendly American Family Field today.

Bet: Cardinals-Brewers OVER 8 (-110 at DraftKings)  

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins ML

Today, the Phillies are likely to be one of the more popular underdog plays, with Kyle Gibson on the mound against a 1-4 Marlins team. In his season debut, Gibson held Oakland scoreless over seven innings of two-hit ball while striking out ten. Bettors will be enamored with that stat line against one of baseball’s worst projected teams, but we will back Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins in their home opener.

Despite issuing five walks, Alcantara did well to limit the Giants to just two earned runs in five innings in his first start. However, we expect Alcantara to have much better command of his pitches indoors at home compared to the chilly frigid weather of San Francisco, where he likely had trouble gripping the baseball.

Of the seven current Marlins with at least two at-bats against Gibson, four are hitting at least .333, with three taking him deep. Meanwhile, four of Philadelphia’s most important bats (J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins) are a combined 11-for-49 (.224) against Alcantara, and his ability to limit the top of the Phillies order will go a long way in determining Miami’s success.

Bet: Miami Marlins ML (-120 at DraftKings)  

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees ML

The Blue Jays have won two of the first three games of their series with the Yankees and look to close the series out in grand fashion with one of their best pitchers on the mound tonight.

Anytime we can get Kevin Gausman at plus odds, we will take it. Gausman’s splitter was nearly unhittable last year and induced the most swings and misses (45.9% whiff rate) last season. That plays right into the weakness of the boom-or-bust Yankees lineup, and we do not expect many balls put in play by New York with Gausman on the mound.

Toronto is 7-1 in its last eight games as road underdogs and has won its previous four road games against right-handed starters. And one more thing…their best hitter is pretty good.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the 2nd youngest player in MLB history at the time of his 2nd career 3-HR game (23 years, 28 days) pic.twitter.com/BfrAGCryHw

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 14, 2022

Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML (+105 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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