Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Monday, April 25th (2022)

Apr 25, 2022 - 10:07 AM

Six Major League Baseball games on Sunday had double-digit runs scored, and that widespread lack of offense around the league is becoming commonplace. Entering Friday’s games, Jeremy Frank took to Twitter to disclose how historically poor offenses have been to this point in the season.

The league-wide OPS this year is .677.

Removing pitchers, the only other year in the live-ball era (since 1920) with an OPS this low in April?

1968, aka “The Year of the Pitcher”, where position players had a .662 April OPS

— Jeremy Frank (@MLBRandomStats) April 22, 2022

Oddsmakers are undoubtedly aware of this trend, and we should start seeing an equal amount of Overs to Unders in the not-so-distant future. Will this be the week we see an uptick in scoring around the league?

With just seven games on Monday’s slate, we have a smaller lineup of plays but look to get the week started profitably nonetheless.

Here are our best bets for Monday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers O/U 8.5

The Houston Astros are off to a disappointing 7-8 start, and their anemic offense through 15 games is primarily to blame. The Astros have scored 54 runs, which is better than just three American League teams. In addition, they rank 26th in batting average and 19th in OPS and will again be without leader Jose Altuve, who will remain on the IL for a couple more games. However, we like Houston’s chances of building off the momentum of yesterday’s 8-7 comeback win and think their bats continue to produce in Texas.

Both starting pitchers, Framber Valdez (1-1, 4.50) and Dane Dunning (0-1, 5.68), have struggled so far this season. They have struggled with control (17 walks between them in 26.2 combined innings), which is a big reason they both have WHIPs of at least 1.57. Though Texas was shut out by lefty Cole Irvin yesterday, the Rangers had scored 18 combined runs in the three games prior, and their 71 runs are one away from the most in the AL West.

The over is 5-0-1 in Texas’ last six games as home underdogs and is 3-0-2 in the previous five meetings in Texas between these teams. Therefore, we like another high-scoring game to break out in the series opener.

Bet: Astros-Rangers O 8.5 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)  

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks O/U 8.5

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have a history of high-scoring games, as the over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 meetings and has cashed in six of the previous eight meetings in Arizona. However, if anyone on Arizona’s staff will hold Los Angeles’ high-powered offense, it is Merrill Kelly.

Kelly (1-0, 0.59) has been a lone bright spot for an Arizona team that does not look destined to win much more than the 52 games it won last year. Kelly has allowed just one earned run through 15.1 innings, and his 10.6 K/9 rate is on pace to be 2.3 higher than his previous career-high. He has accumulated these stats against the Padres, Astros, and Nationals thus far, and at least two of those teams have serious playoff aspirations this season.

Kelly is winless in seven career starts against the Dodgers, pitching to a 4.58 ERA in 39.1 innings. He has allowed seven home runs in that span, but considering he has not allowed a home run yet this season, we trust his ability to keep the ball in the yard will lead to a lower-scoring game. And naturally, we are not worried about Walker Buehler’s (1-1, 4.02) ability to limit a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 26th in OPS and 29th in batting average.

Bet: Dodgers-Diamondbacks U 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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