Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Thursday, April 28th (2022)

Apr 28, 2022 - 9:59 AM

In the history of Major League Baseball, there have been plenty of “World Series hangovers” among teams that won a championship but drastically underperformed relative to those expectations the following season. Though it has only been 19 games, the Atlanta Braves sit at 8-11 and 5.5 games back of the first-place New York Mets in the NL East. Perhaps more shocking is that the Braves have not yet won a series, as they are 0-3-2 in their first five series played. However, after splitting the first two games of their three-game series with the Chicago Cubs, that can change tonight.

With our three best bets of the day, we eschew the anticipated Cubs-Braves series finale (though we will be interested to see if the Braves can finally build some momentum). As we try and follow up a 3-0 day yesterday, we instead focus our attention on the vast array of afternoon games. Our best bets include an underdog’s moneyline odds, a team total, and a full nine-inning game total.

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds ML

We fell for the bait of thinking the Reds had turned a corner on Monday night and were ready to capitalize on the fact that they had put an 11-game losing streak to an end in their previous game. Unfortunately, while the Reds scored the most runs (six) of any of their prior 13 games, they still lost their series opener 9-6 to the Padres. And after last night’s 8-5 defeat, the Reds have the worst record in baseball at 3-15.

So why then would Cincinnati only be slight -105 moneyline underdogs this afternoon? Oddsmakers likely feel the Reds have a considerable pitching edge, with Tyler Mahle (1-2, 6.88) facing Nick Martinez (0-2, 4.30). Mahle has allowed 13 earned runs over his last 12 innings, but the positive is that he has not allowed a single home run in 17 innings this season. We will take our chances with Cincinnati’s most talented pitcher over Martinez, who is 17-32 in his career and is making just his fourth start since 2017, as he spent most of the years in between pitching in Japan.

San Diego is 11-1 in its last 12 meetings against Cincinnati, but the odds suggest Vegas knows the Reds are a live ‘dog.

Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML (-105 at DraftKings)  

New York Yankees Team Total vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees offense has exploded for 17 runs combined in the first two wins of their current series with the Orioles. However, 11 of those 17 runs have come via the home run, and this Yankees offense still has not shown consistency in hitting with runners in scoring position. New York entered Wednesday ranked 25th with a .204 team batting average with runners in scoring position, which does not bode well for its chances of generating runs in the future.

New York faces Bruce Zimmerman (1-0, 1.20) today, and Zimmerman has allowed just one home run in 15 innings so far this season. Zimmerman’s fly ball percentage has decreased in each of the last three seasons, so if the Yankees cannot elevate his pitches this afternoon, they have a lower ceiling offensively. Couple that with manager Aaron Boone’s propensity to rest some starters on day games after night games, and we may not see the same feared Yankees lineup we saw in the first two games of this series.

Bet: New York Yankees Team Total UNDER 4.5 runs (+100 at DraftKings)  

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays O/U

Mariners starting pitcher Chris Flexen (1-2, 3.63) has always been solid at home, as he has a career 3.89 ERA in 28 appearances (24 starts) at T-Mobile Park. However, Flexen has yet to prove he can perform well in road starts, as his ERA balloons to 5.70 and his WHIP increases to 1.718 compared to 1.248 at home.

Flexen is opposed by Corey Kluber (0-1, 3.68), who was pounded for 11 hits over five innings in his last start against the Red Sox. Kluber also has not shown an ability to strike hitters out with the same frequency he has had for several seasons. He has not finished a season with less than nine strikeouts per nine innings since 2013, but his current rate of 7.4 K’s/9 is on pace to be the worst of his career.

Seattle’s offense is the second-highest scoring offense in the American League and has been swinging hot bats of late, scoring 30 combined runs during a recent four-game winning streak.

The over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings in Tampa Bay between these teams, and we like another high-scoring game to break out here.

Bet: Mariners-Rays OVER 8 (+100 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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