Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Thursday, May 5th (2022)

May 5, 2022 - 10:12 AM

After splitting our first two bets on Monday, we followed that up with consecutive 2-1 days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yesterday’s loss was tough to swallow, as we lost the Phillies’ runline (laying -1.5 runs) despite them shutting out the Rangers through nine innings. Nonetheless, we are back with our last article for the week and looking to put a cap on another profitable four-day run.

Today’s ten-game Major League Baseball slate features the openers of six new series, while the other four games are the finales of ones started earlier in the week. 

With a smaller ten-game MLB schedule today, we limit our two plays to a moneyline wager and a bet on a total in two of the National League’s most marquee games.

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies ML

The Mets and Phillies meet for the second time in a week after New York took two out of three games from its division rival at Citi Field last week. Amazingly, the Mets still have yet to lose a series, as they are 7-0-2 in their nine series played to begin the season. That includes another series win against the Phillies, where they took two out of three in Philadelphia in the second three-game set of the season.

Despite New York’s success overall and especially against Philadelphia, we expect the Phillies to put pressure on the Mets in this series opener. Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.90) leads all Phillies starting pitchers with a 0.94 WHIP and an 11.1 K/9 rate. Last week, he was on the other end of New York’s combined no-hitter but pitched well with nine strikeouts over six innings. Nola’s .643 winning percentage (9-5 record) is his best against any divisional opponent, as is his 3.32 ERA. In addition, Nola has always been a much better pitcher at home, as his winning percentage and ERA are .650 and 3.14 compared to a .483 winning percentage and 4.27 ERA in an equal number of road starts (88 each).

We also expect Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber to torment the Mets once again. After last week’s show at Citi Field, Schwarber now has 16 home runs in his first 36 career games against the Mets, which moved him ahead of Willie Mays and Willie McCovey for the most home runs in the first 36 career games against the team.

New York is 0-4 in starting pitcher Taijuan Walker’s last four starts as road underdogs and has lost his previous four starts against divisional opponents. Thus, despite the Mets’ hot start, we are confidently backing the Phillies.

Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-140 at DraftKings)  

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants O/U

Many bettors will point to Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb’s (3-1, 3.26) poor career numbers against the Cardinals and suggest he is in for another rough start. Webb is 0-1 with a 10.80 in two career starts at St. Louis. However, those numbers are misleading because most of those were from one bad start when he was an unpolished rookie, as he was blasted for eight runs (seven earned) in 2.2 innings in 2019. In case one has not noticed, Webb is a much better pitcher now than he was as a rookie and is 14-4 since the start of last year. His other career start against St. Louis was much better when he only allowed one run on five hits in four innings last year. Both were road starts, and we expect this to be his best outing against them in his first home start. 

San Francisco hitters face Miles Mikolas (1-1, 1.52), who has done an outstanding job at the top of the rotation, while Jack Flaherty remains out with a shoulder injury. Mikolas is 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA in six appearances (two starts) against the Giants but has not faced them since 2019.

The Giants lineup is still without two key pieces, as infielders Evan Longoria (finger) and Tommy La Stella (Achilles) remain on the IL. Without them, San Francisco does not have the same ceiling offensively, as evidenced by their two total runs in the two games against the Dodgers.

Bet: Cardinals-Giants UNDER 7.5 (+100 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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