Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Thursday, May 19th (2022)

May 19, 2022 - 10:07 AM

Despite two consecutive 2-1 days to start the week, we decided to change things up yesterday with three “non-conventional” plays. We backed a first five innings under, a first five innings moneyline, and our first “Race to 2 Runs” wager of the season. Wouldn’t you know, we ended up 2-1 again. There is nothing wrong with a 6-3 streak and grinding out profits each day, but we go back to a more traditional approach with our last two picks of the week, backing a total and a moneyline from two American League games.

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles O/U

Jordan Montgomery takes the hill for the Yankees, and one thing you can count on in Montgomery’s starts is a lack of run support from his Yankees offense. In seven starts this season, the Yankees have scored 16 runs for Montgomery, which is largely why five of the team’s nine losses are when he toes the rubber.

New York’s lack of offense in his starts is also a big reason Montgomery is still looking for his first win, as he is 0-1 despite ranking second among all Yankees starters in WHIP (1.08) and third in ERA (3.06). He has allowed three runs or fewer and no more than six hits in any start this season, so the team’s 2-5 record in his starts cannot be blamed on his shortcomings. In addition, through their first 35 games, New York had only allowed a franchise-record 100 runs, and Montgomery is a big reason why.

The Yankees face Baltimore lefty Bruce Zimmerman (2-2, 2.72), whose ERA and WHIP (1.21) are the best among all Orioles starters. Zimmerman has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts. He has a 2.49 ERA in his five starts in day games, and he has been especially tough on lefties, allowing just a .150 OBA and recording 12 of his 17 outs against lefties via strikeouts. That will help neutralize New York’s left-handed bats of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo.

The under is 5-0 in Montgomery’s last five starts as a road favorite and is 7-2 in the previous nine meetings between these teams in Baltimore. We look for both of those trends to continue tonight.

Bet: Yankees-Orioles UNDER 8 (+100 at DraftKings)  

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox ML

The Red Sox continue their current homestand looking to build off the momentum of their last series, where they cooled off the previously red-hot Astros by taking two out of three games. Boston has not lost any of its previous three series and seems to be hitting its stride with the warmer weather rolling in.

The Red Sox rank seventh in wRC+ over the last seven days, which is impressive considering they faced Houston’s elite pitching staff for three of those days. The Astros pitching staff had allowed more than two runs just twice during a span in which they went 12-1, but Boston’s offense scored 15 runs against them in their previous series.

Boston has a significant scheduling edge over Seattle as it remains in the friendly confines of Fenway Park, while Seattle did not arrive in town until early Thursday morning after a late game in Boston last night. One could argue who has the pitching edge as veteran Rich Hill (1-1, 2.89) faces rookie George Kirby (0-0, 0.90). Though Seattle’s No. 1 pitching prospect has fared well through two starts, we give the edge to Hill, who faces a Mariners lineup that ranks 18th in OPS against left-handed pitching and a paltry 29th in batting average (.205) against southpaws.

Bet: Boston Red Sox ML (-130 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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