Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Mets vs. Marlins (6/24)

Jun 24, 2022 - 7:59 PM

Let’s take a look at some No Runs First Inning prop bet odds and picks for today’s game: Mets vs. Marlins.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds: Mets vs. Marlins

How about Sandy Alcantara this season? At the moment, it’s hard to give the NL Cy Young award title to anyone other than the 26-year-old, who has been the most valuable pitcher in the National League, per Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (2.8 fWAR). Meanwhile, there’s no reason to expect his fate to change soon.

We can quibble about Alcantara’s minor problems (23.6% K) striking batters out at an elite level. That being said, when you’re able to induce a ground ball on 55% of the batted balls against you and add onto it with just a 7.3% walk rate, the bar becomes much lower in terms of the number of strikeouts you need to be a dominant pitcher. The fact that he has allowed over two earned runs in just one of 14 starts this season is absolutely absurd, and even though some batted-ball luck boosts it, it’s not to the extent to be concerned about. Regardless of the offense he’s facing, how could you not trust Alcantara right now?

With the status of Jacob deGrom still in doubt and Tylor Megill still sidelined, the Mets require other pieces of their rotation to step up, and that’s exactly what Taijuan Walker has done as of late. The 29-year-old got off to a rough beginning of his season after coming off the injured list, but he has mustered a strong 3.82 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) in his past six starts, while we’ve seen some encouraging changes to his pitch mix; he’s throwing his splitter (31.5% whiff, .261 expected weighted-on-base allowed/xwOBA) twice as much, in turn throwing fewer sinkers (.352 xwOBA last year). Thus, he can induce a similar amount of ground balls (46.4%) but, now, can do so with high strikeout potential. Eno Sarris’ stuff+ (104.2) and pitching+ (103.2) models are all aboard the Walker train.

Plus, loanDepot park ranks in the top ten in terms of home run suppression, according to Baseball Savant. With the threat of home runs already being diminished by the ballpark and these two pitchers, and when you factor in the presence of a true ace with another pitcher making some interesting tweaks to his arsenal, it all leads to a clean, low-scoring game. What better way to start than in the first inning?

Bet: Mets at Marlins NRFI (-128 on FanDuel)

Best Player Prop Bet Rankings for Mets vs. Marlins

What are Player Props?
Player props refer to wagers that bettors can make based on player performance in a specific game. The majority of player props are built around the most common statistical benchmarks for a specific sport such as yards and touchdowns in football. Most player props are straight over/under plays that open at or near -110 and are adjusted based on where the money lands.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

The post Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Mets vs. Marlins (6/24) appeared first on BettingPros.