Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets & Matchups for Wednesday, June 29th (2022)

Jun 29, 2022 - 3:49 PM

Happy hump day, everybody! In short order, the weekend will be here, but for now, let’s just sit back and enjoy a full slate of games! With a lot of day baseball and some intriguing evening games, there are exciting matchups on all coasts, giving today the potential to be very special.

There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways is No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it’s as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether either team will score a run in the first inning. Especially when scoring is lower than normal, it’s more likely that a run is not scored, leading to prices generally being juiced towards the “under” taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you’ll see here!

Miami Marlins at St.Louis Cardinals

Today is a good day. Why? Well, any day Sandy Alcantara gets to pitch is a good day! If the season ended right now, the 26-year-old would likely be the NL Cy Young award winner and has established himself as arguably a top-five pitcher in the game.

Averaging 7.07 innings per start this season, Alcantara’s volume is absurd. Yet, the efficiency is tremendous as well. Although he doesn’t strike batters out at an elite level, a 23% strikeout rate can more than get the job done, especially when you’re not walking hitters (6.9% BB) and induce ground balls at an impressive 55.9% clip. Limit base-runners? Check. Allow as few home runs as any pitcher in baseball? Check; expect another stellar performance here.

It’s a bit murkier on the other side, as we don’t have a length sample size of Cardinals starter Andre Pallante, whose 4.9% K-BB isn’t particularly enticing. What the 23-year-old does, however, is induce ground balls at an absurd rate (63.4% GB), leading to a projected HR/9 by THE BAT of just 0.86. That simple fact alone makes him easy to trust, especially behind a solid Cardinals defense and a Marlins offense that only ranks 18th in on-base percentage this season.

With the long ball not being a factor here, especially in the third-most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, according to Baseball Savant, all signs point to a very low-scoring affair here. Where does that start? In the first inning, of course! In a slate with some likely higher-scoring affairs, betting on no runs being scored here is clearly the top value of the day. From there, sit back, and watch the Sandy show.

Bet: Marlins at Cardinals NRFI (-113 on FanDuel)

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

Are we sure these two teams aren’t identical? Small-market organizations built with very strong pitching and run prevention but don’t perhaps have what you’re looking for in terms of offensive firepower; yeah, that perfectly sums up the Brewers and Rays.

Naturally, any time these two teams face off, a low-scoring game will be expected, and that is the case here as well. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom ten in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) over the past 30 days and have particularly struggled against lefties this season, whom both teams will face today. You could insert almost any pitcher here, and the NRFI would make sense.

Nevertheless, this is a pitching matchup to be intrigued about as well. Staying true to form, the Rays will be trotting out an opener in Jalen Beeks for this game, which makes sense given Milwaukee’s issues against lefties this season. In 31.1 innings this season, Beeks has continued to dominate with a 30.1% strikeout rate, 21.1% K-BB, and a 2.92 skill interactive ERA (SIERA)- all fantastic numbers. When you’re striking out batters at the rate he does and are inducing ground balls on 50% of the batted balls against you, it’s going to be easy for you to have a lot of success.

Meanwhile, for the season, Brewers starter Eric Lauer (3.75 SIERA, 17.5% K-BB) has been a key cog for the Brewers rotation. He’s also at his best when he can have success with his fastball at the top of the season, and with Tampa Bay ranking fourth-worst in runs above average against fastballs this season, that’s notable; this is a game where we can expect Lauer’s strikeouts to tick back up. Oh, and Tropicana Field just happens to be tied for the third-lowest park factor this season, specializing in suppressing home runs while being known to raise strikeouts. Expect both pitchers to take advantage of that against two lineups without star power at the top of the lineup, leading to a smooth first inning.

Bet: Brewers at Rays NRFI (-125 on FanDuel)

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