Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Friday, July 1 (2022)

Jul 1, 2022 - 12:35 PM

With the weekend approaching, it’s time to put together some straight bets to build up our bankroll. With a full and exciting slate, I’ve added three bets that I’m very high on.

Let’s get right to it!

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)


Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Berrios has been hard to figure out this season. But his analytics still suggest he’s been good. In the last 30 days, Berrios has a 4.06 xFIP. That’s above the average.

He’s also struck out 23.3% of batters in that same time frame while only walking 5% of batters. On top of that, Berrios has averaged 48.8% of ground balls induced on batted balls in play in those 30 days and has limited line drive contact to 18.3%.

He’ll take on a Rays’ lineup that has a .062 ISO and wOBA of .223 in the last 30 days against righties. Berrios has a ton of matchup advantages in this one.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will take on Corey Kluber, who has a 4.58 xFIP in the last 30 days. Toronto has been much more consistent against righties in comparison, hitting a .223 ISO and wOBA of .360 in those same 30 days with their projected lineup.

I’ll take the Blue Jays at home.

Bet: Blue Jays (-130 at DraftKings


Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds

The Atlanta Braves have destroyed left-handed pitching all year. Tonight, they’ll likely get the worst lefty in the MLB this year.

The Reds will send out left-hander Mike Minor, who has a 6.05 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s allowed a .425 wOBA and ISO of .371 to righties against his last 83 righties faced and has allowed a .363 wOBA and ISO of .324 against his last 36 lefties faced.

The Braves’ projected lineup has a .236 ISO and wOBA of .371 against lefties in the last 30 days with every single batter hitting at least 21.1% of line drives in that same time frame.

For the Braves, Max Fried will get the call. He has a 3,07 xFIP in the last 30 days with 52.9% of ground balls in that same duration.

The Reds have a lot of power against lefties, however, and have averaged a .246 ISO with a wOBA of .385 in the last 30 days. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds added a couple of runs against Fried in this game. Therefore, I’ll grab the Over 9.5 in this matchup. The Braves will likely win by multiple runs, but the Reds will put a couple of runs on the board as well.

Bet: Over 9.5 (+105 at DraftKings)


Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins

Spenser Watkins will make another start for the Orioles tonight. On the season, he has a 6.67 xFIP with just 11.2% of strikeouts recorded. He’s also walked close to 10% of batters faced this year.

On top of that, Watkins has struggled against righties, allowing a .403 wOBA and ISO of .291 against 99 righties.

The Twins have a balanced order but also have plenty of power in the lineup. Minnesota is hitting a .224 ISO with a wOBA of .349 against righties in the last 30 days and is getting major power from righties like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa.

On the flip side, it’ll be Joe Ryan on the mound for the Twins. He’s struggled a bit in the last 30 days but should get back on track knowing that the Orioles’ projected lineup is striking out 25.8% of the time while earning walks just 5.8% of the time in the last 30 days.

I’ll take the Twins on the runline tonight.

Bet: Twins -1.5 (-105 at DraftKings)


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