7 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks for Monday, July 4 (2022)

Jul 4, 2022 - 10:29 AM

Let’s check out the top player prop odds and picks for Monday.


Top MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks for Monday

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals

  • Miguel Rojas to record 2+ total bases (+140)
  • Juan Soto to record 2+ hits (+240)

The Marlins are on a good run as they come into this game hot as a grill at your BBQ with a four-game winning streak. They have scored five or more runs in the last three.

The bats might need to stay hot with Braxton Garrett on the mound. He’s currently 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA and is in the 30th percentile or lower in xBA, xERA, hard-hit percentage, and wOBA. He’s changed up his pitching style this year by throwing the slider more, but it’s not getting positive results as he’s lost two inches off his average drop, and he went from a run value of -1 with the pitch to +3.

On the other side is Patrick Corbin. It might be mean to pick on him for every start, but it’s hard not to take advantage of his struggles. Amongst qualified starters, he has the highest ERA (6.06), WHIP (1.70), hits allowed (109), and is only one of two players with ten or more losses this year.

We have two struggling pitchers, and in this series, we’ve seen eight or more total runs in the three previous games. They’ll be setting off fireworks early in the nation’s capital.

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds

  • Hunter Green under 5.5 strikeouts (-124)
  • Brandon Nimmo to record 2+ total bases (-115)
  • Starling Marte to record 2+ total bases (-120 )

New York will have Taijuan Walker on the mound, and after ten seasons in the league, he’s having a breakout campaign. He has a career-best 2.72 ERA and has been fantastic over his last four starts going 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA and averaging a little over nine strikeouts per nine.

On the other side is the Reds’ No. 1 prospect Hunter Greene. There’s a ton of raw talent here, but he’s going through growing pains. He has a fastball that can eclipse 100 MPH, but he keeps it primarily in the middle of the plate. It doesn’t matter how fast you throw, if you keep it in the zone, hitters will adjust, and it shows as they are batting .333 and a .710 slugging percentage off it.

The Mets aren’t a power-hitting team, but they’re one of the best at making contact as they’re second in OBP (.327) and fifth in BABIP (.300). Greene will provide the firepower, and the Mets will use it to make the balls fly like Roman Candles.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics

  • Alek Manoah over 6.5 strikeouts (+122)
  • Vladmir Gurerro Jr. to record 2+ total bases (-115)

Cole Irvin will take the mound, but he’s been struggling with a 4.81 ERA in his last four starts after a good beginning to the season with a 3.00 ERA in his first nine. He could be in for another rough day as the Blue Jays are batting .318 against Irvin in 38 at-bats and are sixth in average (.266) and fourth in OPS (.759) against left-handers on the road this year.

The Jays will counteract with Alek Manoah, who’s already matched his 9-2 record from last season, and is making a case for AL Cy Young votes. He’s coming into the start as one of the best this year, with his 3.1 WAR being second amongst pitchers, a 2.09 ERA that is third, and a 0.961 WHIP that is fourth. This Oakland lineup continues to trend downward, and now they’re last across the slash line.

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