Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Tuesday, July 5th (2022)

Jul 5, 2022 - 10:11 AM

Just two teams in baseball have an active winning streak of five or more games. One of those teams, the Houston Astros, is not surprising given they have the second-best record in the majors. However, the Miami Marlins being the other team may surprise many, and their current five-game winning streak has them two games under .500 for the first time since May 17. The Marlins are involved in one of our best bets for Tuesday, but what other two are we looking to cash with?

Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds O/U

Under normal circumstances, betting the over in a game involving one of the best pitchers in baseball who is facing the lowly Reds would be highly questionable, but these are not normal circumstances. Mets co-ace Max Scherzer (5-1, 2.54) is making his first start since May 18, when he went on the IL with a strained left oblique muscle. Scherzer has reportedly told the media he wants to throw around 90 pitches, but we would not be surprised to see Buck Showalter and the rest of the Mets coaching staff be more cautious with him. Thus, Cincinnati should see more of the Mets bullpen than they usually see, and considering Scherzer allowed three runs in 4.2 innings in his last rehab start at Double-A, it may take him more time to get re-acclimated to his role.

Even if Scherzer looks like his old self, New York is more than capable of accounting for most of this projected total. The Mets rank 21st in slugging against left-handing pitching since the start of June but are in the top half of the league in wRC+. Regardless, Nick Lodolo (1-2, 5.52) is also coming off a long lay-off (he has not pitched since April 24), and he should be even rustier than Scherzer.

Bet: Mets-Reds OVER 9 Runs (-115 at DraftKings)  

Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara O/U Strikeouts

The Marlins are a streaky team, as their current five-game winning streak is their third such streak this season. And while NL Cy Young frontrunner Sandy Alcantara is on the mound, we are tempted to play their moneyline odds. However, the safer bet is the over on Alcantara’s strikeouts, given that the Angels rank dead-last in the league in strikeout percentage, whiffing 26.2% of the time. 

Los Angeles tied the MLB record for futility with 20 combined strikeouts in a nine-inning game on Sunday. They swung at 55 pitches and whiffed on 25 of them, and every player who came to the plate struck out at least once. Now the Angels face Alcantara, who ranks third in ERA (1.95), eighth in WHIP (0.95), and fifth in OBA (.198). Most importantly for this wager, Alcantara’s 115.1 innings are 11 more than the next closest pitcher, and he ranks ninth in the National League with 97 strikeouts this season.

Bet: Sandy Alcantara OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings) 

New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates O/U

A day after the Yankees swept a doubleheader against the Guardians by a combined score of 19-5, New York’s offense was held to just one hit in Sunday’s series finale. We look for the Yankees to break out against Pittsburgh lefty Jose Quintana (1-4, 3.43). Quintana pitched to a 4.80 ERA in six June starts, but in the three starts he made against teams with winning records, his ERA rose to 5.74, and he failed to complete more than 5.1 innings in any of those starts.

On the other side, Jameson Taillon (9-1, 3.32) has allowed nine earned runs in his last 10.2 innings. It is fair to wonder if Taillon is getting tired as the season wears on, as his 4.59 ERA in June is more than 1.30 runs higher than any of the previous two months. He faces a Pirates lineup that has shown it has pop lately, as their 44 home runs in June was one shy of its franchise record for any month set back in August 2007.

The over has cashed in five of Pittsburgh’s last six home games, and we like for that trend to continue tonight.

Bet: Yankees-Pirates OVER 9 Runs (+100 at DraftKings) 

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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