Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Tuesday, July 5 (2022)

Jul 5, 2022 - 2:32 PM

No Runs First Inning (NRFI) is a great way to jump into baseball betting. You don’t have to know a ton about baseball to make these bets. If you place an NRFI bet and the teams are held scoreless through one frame, you win! Let’s take a look at our top NRFI plays for today.


Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres 4:10 pm ET

The Mariners took game one of this series dominantly and will now turn to the best pitcher on their staff, right-hander Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has had an impeccable sophomore season thus far as he enters this start with a 2.66 ERA while holding a 1.12 WHIP and has racked up almost a strikeout per inning. His underlying metrics say that he is due to regress as he’s in the bottom ten percent of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but his ability to miss barrels seems to be saving him.

Gilbert is in the top 35 percent in barrel rate allowed. His stuff is tremendous, allowing him to get away with more mistakes than others. While it may seem like a fluke, Gilbert has only given up more than three runs in a start twice this year. In addition, he’s been even better in the first inning this season. The Mariners’ righty has only allowed two runs in the first inning all season and has struck out at over a batter per inning. Going against a lineup that has been cold lately and is 23rd in first-inning runs scored per game means all signs point to a quiet bottom of the first.

The top half may move even smoother as Mike Clevinger will get the ball for San Diego. Sunshine has been outstanding for the Padres this season. He’ll enter this afternoon’s outing with a 2.79 ERA and dominant underlying metrics. Clevinger is in the top 25 percent of the majors in average exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel rates. His arsenal of six pitches has kept hitters off-balance as he has an xBA of just .231 and a strikeout rate amongst the top 30 percent of all qualified pitchers. Just like his counterpart, he’s been impeccable in the first inning. Clevinger has allowed just one run in the first inning all season, and it was on a solo homer. If he can get past Julio Rodriguez, the odds of him keeping the Mariners off the board will increase drastically. So get a piece of this afternoon’s action and take the NRFI here.

Pick: NRFI -118

Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins 6:40 pm ET

This very well may be the best pitching matchup on the board as NL Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins will host Noah Syndergaard and the Angels. There is no hyperbole when it comes to Alcantara’s dominance this season. He’ll put his 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP on the line against the 10th-best first-inning offense in the majors. While the top of the Angels’ order is daunting, they should be just as scared of Alcantara. He’s in the top 15 percent of the majors in every expected statistic and has a three-pitch mix where every pitch sits above 90 mph. With the Angels leading the league in strikeout rate, the Marlins ace is in a fantastic spot to put up a zero in the top of the first.

As for the bottom half, that duty will be in the hands of Noah Syndergaard. The former Mets fireballer came over to the Angels on a one-year prove-it deal, showing that he can still be highly effective even with a drop in velocity. Syndergaard has gone from an overpowering fastball pitcher to a crafty sinkerballer. He’s in the top 25 percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. We’ll see him feature a four-pitch arsenal built to generate ground balls. A ground ball pitcher and the second-worst first-inning offense in the majors sounds like an excellent recipe for a quiet bottom of the first.

Pick: NRFI -134


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