Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Wednesday, July 6th (2022)

Jul 6, 2022 - 8:58 AM

Sometimes, things in MLB Betting make sense, like the New York Yankees going 6-0 combined against the lowly Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics this year. And sometimes, they do not, as @betsstats on Twitter pointed out.

Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics O/U

Toronto’s Jose Berrios’ home/road splits continue to grow different each time he takes the mound. Berrios (6-4, 5.72) is 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA in seven starts at the Rogers Centre but is 2-4 with a miserable 7.92 ERA on the road. In his last two road starts, he has been roughed up for 14 earned runs in 6.2 innings while walking more batters (three) than he struck out (two). He has just three quality starts on the road this year, and his road woes are a big reason this total is set so high. However, Berrios gets a golden opportunity to improve those road numbers drastically against arguably the worst hitting team in the majors, the Athletics.

In nearly every statistical category, Oakland and Detroit are the two worst offensive teams in the American League. We mention this because, in his road start against the Tigers, Berrios allowed just one run on five hits in a season-high eight innings. We also expect Oakland’s James Kaprielian (1-5, 5.43) to pitch well, as he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts, and four were on the road.

Bet: Blue Jays-Athletics UNDER 8.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings)  

Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros: Cristian Javier to Record a Win (Yes/No)

The Astros have the major’s longest active winning streak at eight games and outscored its opponents 50-19 in that span. More importantly for this wager, Houston’s starting pitchers have earned the win in six of those games.

Cristian Javier (6-3, 2.58) has won each of his last three starts, and the only hit he allowed in his previous 14 innings was a solo home run to Shohei Ohtani. We expect Houston to jump on Kansas City early and for an Astros bullpen that had an MLB-best 2.62 ERA entering yesterday to shut down Kansas City in the late innings while the offense continues to pile on against a Royals bullpen that is third-worst in the league with a 4.72 ERA.

It does not make fiscal sense to back Houston’s massive -275 moneyline odds, but betting Javier to record a win at +115 is the much better value play.

Bet: Cristian Javier to Record a Win (+115 at DraftKings) 

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ML

The Giants went 17-2 against Arizona last year, so perhaps that is why they have still been favored in every game in this series because it certainly is not because of their stellar play on the field. San Francisco has lost six straight games (and 12 of 15), mainly because of an inept offense that has scored just 14 total runs in that span. Conversely, Arizona’s bats have heated up of late, averaging seven runs per game over the last five. And it has not all been “boom or bust” for Arizona’s offense like it was for much of the early months, as the Diamondbacks are collectively 14-for-39 (.359) with runners in scoring position in that span.

Arizona also has the pitching edge tonight, with Merrill Kelly (7-5, 3.46) opposing one of San Francisco’s most vulnerable starting pitchers, Alex Cobb (3-3, 4.59). Cobb’s numbers are salvageable because of the friendly confines of Oracle Park, but he has been exposed on the road with a 6.41 ERA in four road starts.

Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+110 at DraftKings) 

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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