Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Wednesday, August 10th (2022)

Aug 10, 2022 - 10:18 AM

Moneylines are the word of the day with today’s MLB Betting Odds & Picks column, as we have backed two underdogs and one favorite with reasonably low odds. Thus, we are looking at a huge payday with a sweep of today’s trio of picks but would minimize the damage if just one of our underdogs comes through.

Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners ML

The Yankees are just 2-5 in their last seven road games against left-handed starting pitchers. However, they are not just facing any southpaw today, as defending Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray (8-8, 3.96) takes the mound looking to send the Yankees to a third straight series loss.

Ray will not win back-to-back Cy Youngs as he got off to a slow start this season. However, we might be in the running if he made every start in Seattle. Ray is 4-3 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 home starts. His home run allowed rate is also much better at home, as he has allowed 0.97 HR/9 at home but 2.12 HR/9 on the road. Keeping the ball in the park is always essential when facing a Yankees lineup that leads the league with 188 home runs.

Ray will benefit from facing a shorthanded Yankees lineup that was already without Giancarlo Stanton but now added Matt Carpenter as its latest IL addition. New York fears that they lost Comeback Player of the Year candidate Matt Carpenter for the year with a fractured foot. Carpenter was a force for the Yankees since being acquired on May 26, as he was hitting .305 with 15 home runs and 37 RBI. New York averaged 1.7 more runs per game with Carpenter in the lineup than without him, so we look for them to struggle to score runs as they adapt to playing without him.

Bet: Seattle Mariners ML (+110 at DraftKings)  

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies ML

Sandy Alcantara is currently -240 at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the NL Cy Young Award, so it may seem blasphemous to bet against him at this point. However, the Marlins have not scored more than three runs in the last nine games, so Alcantara is likely to work with minimal run support in this start.

The offensive numbers between these two clubs have been a complete mismatch over the last two weeks. In that time, Miami ranks 27th in slugging (.269) and wRC+ (75), while Philadelphia ranks third in each category over the same time frame.

Alcantara is making his fourth start of the season against Philadelphia and is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 22:6 K:BB ratio in the previous three. However, the advantage will go to the hitters at some point after seeing a pitcher that frequently. We expect the Phillies to win their seventh consecutive home game and tenth straight game against teams with a losing record.

Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-125 at DraftKings)  

Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox ML

Though the Red Sox have struggled to a 54-57 record so far this season, this bet is a fade of Atlanta’s Kyle Wright, despite his gaudy 13-5 win/loss record. Wright’s xERA (4.11) is almost an entire run higher than his actual ERA (3.22). He is coming off his worst start of the season, as he was tagged for six earned runs (and four home runs) over six innings in his last start against the Mets. Just four of his last 12 starts have been against teams over .500, but he has pitched to a 4.48 ERA in those games and failed to reach six innings twice. The metrics are not kind to Wright, as he is below average in hard hit percentage, average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and chase rate. 

Nick Pivetta’s numbers are not as eye-popping as Wright’s, as he is 8-8 with a 4.51 ERA this year. However, he produces in the category that matters most, team wins, as he has led the team to wins in six of his last seven starts at Fenway Park. Thus, we expect Atlanta to lose for the sixth time in their last eight road games.

Bet: Boston Red Sox ML (+120 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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