Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Thursday, August 11th (2022)

Aug 11, 2022 - 10:59 AM

While yesterday’s three MLB best bets all involved moneylines (2-1 record, +1.00 units), we have identified our two best team totals (one is a five-inning team total) for today’s small eight-game slate.

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: Royals Team Total O/U

Dylan Cease’s (12-4, 1.98) numbers lately have not just been eye-popping; they have been historic. Cease set a new MLB record (passed Jacob deGrom) with 13 consecutive starts allowing one or fewer runs. He has allowed one run six times in his last ten starts, and no runs in the other four. On a smaller scale, his ERA is a mind-boggling 0.74 in his previous five starts, and he has allowed 17 hits with a 33:10 K:BB ratio over his last 24.2 innings pitched. In addition, per Christopher Kamka on Twitter, Cease’s 1.98 ERA through 22 starts is the franchise’s best since Tommy John’s 1.94 ERA through the first 22 starts in 1968.

If someone can explain to me how the Royals will score runs in the first five innings while Cease is in the game, I am all ears.

Bet: Kansas City Royals Team Total UNDER 1.5 (-125 at DraftKings)  

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies: Rockies Team Total O/U

One team has a starting pitcher that cannot strike batters out, and he faces a lineup producing the highest batting average with balls in play to this point. That is an easy recipe for a crooked scoreboard and a quick hook for that starting pitcher.

Dakota Hudson (6-6, 4.20) is fading hard after going 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA through his first seven starts. He has won just one of his previous seven starts while pitching to a 6.03 ERA. The metrics say his numbers should be much worse, as evidenced by his 5.45 xERA. And in an era where we see crooked strikeout totals on a nightly basis, Hudson does not miss bats, as he has 17 strikeouts and 14 walks in his last 34.1 innings. 

Colorado is 15 games under .500, but they lead the majors with a .315 BABIP. Hudson ranks in the 2nd percentile in K%, chase rate, and whiff rate, and the 4th percentile in xBA. As a result, Colorado will be doing a lot of damage offensively with all the balls they will put in play.

Bet: Colorado Rockies Team Total OVER 5.5 Runs (-115 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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