Top 3 MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Sunday, August 14 (2022)

Aug 14, 2022 - 12:48 PM

Although the Padres couldn’t come through last night, we finished 2-1 and ended up with a profit. I’m looking to continue that momentum with today’s slate.

I’ve added my favorite three bets of today’s early slate. If you’re tailing, make sure to get those bets in early. All but one game will be played in the afternoon!

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

This weekend series between the Brewers and Cardinals is all tied up at one. With both these two teams fighting for a divisional win, this game is extremely crucial.

Miles Mikolas will get the start for the Cardinals. He’s been pretty bad recently, holding an xFIP of 4.35. Mikolas has struck out 16% of batters faced but has been able to limit walks to 4% of batters faced.

Mikolas has struggled more against righties, allowing a .363 wOBA and ISO of .176 to his last 72 righties faced. Meanwhile, the Brewers are hitting a .222 ISO and wOBA of .367 against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will face Aaron Ashby of the Brewers. The lefty has a 4.30 xFIP with 11.3% of walks to batters faced in the last 30 days. Ashby’s strikeout rate is high but lefties have struggled against this Cardinals lineup recently.

The Cardinals are hitting a .245 ISO and wOBA of .402 against lefties while only striking out 12% of the time in the last 30 days. If Ashby can’t earn strikeouts, the Cardinals are going to be putting the ball in play with runners on base. That should help the over hit in this one.

Bet: Over 8 (-115 at DraftKings) 

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers

As the season has progressed, Logan Gilbert has regressed. It’s his first full season in the majors and he’s starting to fatigue a bit. However, Gilbert has still been able to minimize walks. If he can do that against the Rangers, he’ll be fine. The Rangers are hitting a .144 ISO with a wOBA of .291.

The top of the order for Texas is dangerous but once you get past those top four batters, the Rangers have been dreadful offensively. The Rangers have struck out 27.8% of the time with their lineup against righties in the last 30 days while only walking 5.6% of the time. Gilbert can get through this order.

On the other side, it’ll be Martin Perez for the Rangers. He’s got a 4.16 xFIP with a high strikeout rate. Perez has been really good at keeping ISO numbers down against both sides of the plate in the last 30 days. The Mariners are hitting a .108 ISO against lefties in that same time frame.

I’m loving this pitching matchup today and will be on the under in this game.

Bet: Under 7.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels

Tucker Davidson made his debut with the Angels last week, after being dealt at the trade deadline by the Braves. The Angels knew what they were getting.

Davidson is ultimately your typical AAAA pitcher. He’s terrific in triple-A but struggles in the majors.

In his first game with the Angels this season, he finished with a 9.91 xFIP. He walked 21.7% of batters faced and struck out just 4.3% of batters faced in his 2022 debut.

The Twins are currently smacking lefties around, hitting a .230 ISO and wOBA of .341 against lefties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup.

On the other hand, Chris Archer will get the start for the Twins. Ultimately, he’s earned a much higher strikeout rate and has performed well throughout the season, for what it’s worth.

The Angels are starting to get some offense, hitting a .168 ISO and wOBA of .305 against righties. But that doesn’t compare to what the Twins have done to lefties in the last 30 days.

Let’s back the Twins on the moneyline today.

Bet: Twins (-140 at DraftKings)

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