Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday, September 21st (2022)

Sep 21, 2022 - 9:47 AM

Another profitable 2-1 day yesterday brings our week’s record to 4-1, and we look to keep that momentum going today.

Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees Team Total O/U

Pittsburgh’s Roansy Contreras (5-4, 3.24) has done everything a pitcher needs to do to be the perfect foil to the Yankees lineup, especially in Yankee Stadium. Contreras keeps the ball in the yard and has not allowed a home run in 23.1 innings, spanning four starts dating back to August 28. New York’s 233 home runs are the most in the league by a wide margin, and its offensive ceiling is limited if it is not hitting dingers, as it is not the most reliable team hitting with runners in scoring position.

In addition, hitters batting in the top of the order have hit just .186 off Contreras. That is the eighth-best among all starting pitchers with at least 72 innings pitched. Now that manager Aaron Boone has changed the lineup to bat Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton 1-2 in the order, similar numbers tonight would limit New York’s most feared hitters. 

Entering yesterday’s series opener, opponents were hitting just .146 against Pirates starting pitchers over the last 14 days when behind in the count, the best mark in the league. All this adds up to minimal runs for the Bronx Bombers.

Bet: New York Yankees Team Total UNDER 4.5 (+105 at DraftKings)  

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals RL

Minnesota’s Bailey Ober showed no signs of rust in his first start of the second half, striking out five in five innings and holding the Guardians to a .091 BABIP. Based on Ober’s first-half statistics, we expect him to turn in another solid outing. His 24.8% ground-ball rate was the lowest of any Twins starter, but that did not equate to him allowing home runs. Likewise, Ober’s 3.8% HR/FB rate was the best of all Twins starters with at least six starts, as was his 2.78 FIP. 

The Royals are slashing just .205/.270/.289 over the last 14 days and have a league-worst .251 wOBA and 57 wRC+ in that span. 

Minnesota has won its last four of its last five road meetings against Kansas City. Plus, its 12-5 record against the Royals is second in the AL only to Toronto’s 13-3 record against Boston for the best against a division rival. Thus, we will opt for a better value by laying the -1.5 runs.

Bet: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Runs (+115 at DraftKings)  

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics RL

There is a significant pitching mismatch in this AL West battle when defending Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray (12-10, 3.72) opposes Oakland’s James Kaprielian (3-9, 4.70). Ray may not be taking home any individual hardware this year, but his HR percentage, hard-hit percentage, and GB/FB ratio are all better than last year’s Cy Young campaign. In addition, his .229 OBA, .296 OBP, .420 SLG, and .283 are all best since 2018 aside from last year.

Conversely, James Kaprielian is winless in his last three starts, and his 5.65 K/9, 7.53 ERA, and 6.75 xFIP are the worst among all A’s starters in the previous 30 days. The Mariners entered last night’s series opener averaging 4.6 runs per game on the road over the previous week (ninth-highest), while Oakland allowed 5.0 runs per game in that span (eighth-highest), and we expect each trend to continue.

Do not expect much offense from Oakland late. Opponents have a well-hit average of .152 against Seattle’s relievers (second-lowest), while the A’s hitters as a whole have a well-hit average of .170 on the season, per Inside Edge. Furthermore, the Mariners bullpen has allowed a .632 OPS (fifth-best). That does not bode well for Oakland’s lineup, which has amassed a .626 OPS on the season.

Bet: Seattle Mariners -1.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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