Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/1)

Oct 1, 2022 - 6:28 PM

Welcome to October baseball! We’ve got five days left of the regular season, and then the playoffs will begin.

The Seattle Mariners made the postseason for the first time since 2001 last night. Now there are just two playoff spots up for grabs.

The Mets and Braves are tied in the NL East with five to play. Meanwhile, the Phillies still have a .5-game lead against the Brewers in the final Wild Card spot in the NL.

We’ll make sure to look at the important games for tonight. Here are the three best bets in games for today.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals (Game 1)

The Phillies have struggled in the last week. But they picked up a win yesterday against the Nationals to stay .5 games above the Brewers in the NL Wild Card. Despite the poor play, the Phillies are still in a better position than the Brewers.

Philadelphia will play in a doubleheader tonight. But I’m looking at the first game. The Phillies will face Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals in the afternoon.

Sanchez has had an xFIP of 6.34 over the last 30 days. He’s struck out just 13.5% of batters while walking 12.2% of batters during that time frame.

Righties have had a little more success this season against Sanchez. He’s allowed a .173 ISO to lefties and .217 ISO to righties over the entire year. The Phillies are getting plenty of power in the previous month from their top four bats in the lineup, including Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto.

Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson will get the call for the Phillies. He has a 4.52 xFIP in the last 30 days and has allowed 26.3% of line drives when the ball is hit into play. He’s struggled more against lefties this season but will only face two lefties in the Washington lineup tonight. Washington has also struck out over 19% of the time and continues to hit a high groundball rate against righties.

I like the Phillies to win convincingly in the first game of the doubleheader.

Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-105 at DraftKings) 

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Phillies will be paying attention to this game. Milwaukee is still fighting for an NL Wild Card spot. They’ll send out Aaron Ashby to take on Miami’s Edward Cabrera.

Cabrera has had a 5.74 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s also walked 10.7% of batters faced in the previous month. Against his last 57 righties, Cabrera has allowed a .422 wOBA and ISO of .370. He’s been solid against lefties, despite being a right-handed pitcher.

Milwaukee’s projected lineup has worked out 10.5% of walks in the last 30 days, but they’ve also struck out 24.8% of the time. You get the best of both worlds with this Milwaukee lineup. Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe are the only two righties hitting power against Cabrera over the last 30 days. Those two have potential and rarely walk. The Brewers could be in business if others walk in front of Adames and Renfroe.

On the other hand, Aaron Ashby has pitched to 19 batters since returning from the injured list. His command looks off, but he induced 80% of ground balls when balls were batted into play.

The Marlins are getting consistent extra-base power from three batters in their lineup but have four batters hitting at least 50% of ground balls against lefties in the last 30 days.

The thing is, if Cabrera is struggling, the Marlins will let him work around his mistakes. If Ashby struggles, he’ll get the quick hook with a solid bullpen behind him.

The Brewers should be able to earn the victory over Miami tonight.

Bet: Brewers (-180 at DraftKings)

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

The Mets and Braves are tied in the NL East with 98 wins each. Both teams will make the postseason. They’re both just fighting for the NL East Division. An NL East divisional win would earn the second seed and a bye week instead of playing in a three-game Wild Card.

Max Scherzer will take the hill for the Mets tonight. Scherzer has had a 2.60 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 26.8% of batters faced in that time frame.

The Braves are home run or bust. They struck out 11 times against deGrom but hit three crucial solo home runs to push past deGrom and the Mets last night.

Meanwhile, Kyle Wright will take the hill for the Braves. He’s a 20-game winner for the Braves, but if there’s one blemish, it’s that he’s walked 10.1% of batters. The Mets are hitting a .340 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days and have walked 11.2% of the time.

Wright has allowed a bit of power to lefties and a high wOBA to righties. The Mets have more potential in this game offensively. They’ve been hot and cold recently, but if they can stay patient at the plate, the Mets should have more opportunities to win the game.

Back the Mets.

Bet: Mets (-125 at DraftKings)

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