Over/Under 2023 Preview: Nick Sandlin

Mar 21, 2023 - 2:15 PM

Based on ZiPS projections, Nick Sandlin is expected to finish 2023 with the following stats:

52 G, 49.3 IP, 24.7% K%, 12.1% BB%, 4.02 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 0.0 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Covering the Corner Discord.

Quincy Wheeler’s prediction: OVER

This one is a little tricky because Nick Sandlin has an established history of getting injured now, which sidearmers typically have trouble shaking. So, I could see how he might have trouble getting to 50 innings pitched in 2023. However, I do believe that when he pitches, he will be better than the numbers ZiPS projects him to put up.

After spending some time in Columbus to iron out his control issues, Sandlin came back in July and finished the season putting up a 29.2 K% and a 6.3 BB%, and a 1.97 FIP last season. In 2021, he put up a 34 K% and 12.1 BB% with a 2.96 FIP. I believe his April-May in 2022 was more of an aberration than the norm and he will exceed a 25% strikeout rate and lower his walk rate below 12%.

The primary issue for Sandlin, aside from health, is a 4.23 FIP against left-handed hitters for his career. He managed to put up a 3.59 FIP against lefties in the second half of 2022, and if he can manage to maintain something closer to 3.50 FIP than 4.00 FIP against LHP, I’d be confident he’ll put up at least a half a win in 2022. He should, at the very least, be a useful weapon for Tito against right-handed heavy portions of opponents’ lineups.