UFC Fight Night: Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley Betting Guide (2020)

Sep 18, 2020 - 12:49 AM

In what will be the final event of September before UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa kicks off another five-fight run on UFC’s Fight Island, we have a great one.

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley is sprinkled with great fights throughout, including a light heavyweight showdown between Johnny Walker and Ryan Spann, and a strong co-main with Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone vs. Niko Price. Those are all after Kevin Holland takes on Darren Steward to get the main card started, streamed in its entirety (as is the preliminary card), on ESPN+.

While the build-up should be a strong one, the main event of the evening is the matchup I have my eye as having a perceived edge. Let’s take a closer look.

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Colby Covington (15-2-0) vs. Tyron Woodley (19-5-1)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

With this fight originally slated for UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar in August, Woodley came out and said it wasn’t enough time to recover from injuries in his most recent fight back in May, hence the matchup falling to now. That fight, a unanimous decision loss, was his second in a row since losing the welterweight belt to Kamru Usman at UFC 235 in March.

Prior to losing the belt, Woodley had successfully defended it four times since capturing in July 2016, via a knockout win against former champion Robbie Lawler at UFC 201.

Woodley’s challenger Saturday is the current #2 ranked welterweight challenger Colby Covington. The former NCAA Division I All-American out of Oregon State University was on a terror before running into Usman himself in December. In his challenge for the belt, Covington was TKO’d in the fifth round after a fight that looked destined for the judge’s scorecards.

Prior to the Usman defeat, Covington had picked apart the division, winning his last seven straight, with his last five straight going to decisions. Coming into this one as the heavy (-375) favorite, Covington knows he needs to be careful of the heavy right hand Woodley has been to known to let fly early and often in his fights.

A closer look at this one reveals two born wrestlers in a division that has a flair for the dramatics. Over their last 10 combined fights, eight have gone to the judge’s scorecards, with the majority being fights that went to the ground at one point or another.

In this one, I look for both fighters to be fine taking to this ground, leaving ample chance for submissions. Ultimately, however, neither fighter can afford a loss, which I think plays into a more passive approach for both that ends in a decision.

Pick: How fight will End – 2 Units Points (-195) & 1 Unit Submission (+650)

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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.

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