UFC 276 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena (2022)

Jun 29, 2022 - 5:42 PM

We’re in for a stacked card on Saturday night featuring a pair of title fights. The co-main event features the conclusion of a trilogy as Max Holloway challenges Alexander Volkanovski for the featherweight belt. All roads lead to Israel Adesanya as he makes his sixth title defense, this time against Jared Cannonier in the main event.

But, we have to get started somewhere, and we open up the main card with a bout between Robbie Lawler and Bryan Barberena. Let’s dive into this welterweight battle and get a pick locked in the opener. 

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PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS
BRYAN BARBERENA	+104	EVEN	+104	+105	+105	+101	+101
ROBBIE LAWLER	-125	-120	-132	-125	-125	-125	-125

Betting Profile: Robbie Lawler (29-15-0, 1NC)

Last Five Fights (WLLLL)

Ruthless Robbie Lawler makes the UFC walk for the 36th time on Saturday night and is looking to string together a winning streak. Lawler is coming off of a technical knockout victory over Nick Diaz in a rematch that was 17 years in the making.

The now 40-year-old Lawler outstruck Diaz 150-131 and finished him 44 seconds in the third round with a right hook that looked like it broke Diaz’s nose. The former champ was great in the fight, coming in well-conditioned, fit, and with a sound strategy. It was just like old times for Lawler. 

The American-born brawler averages 3.73 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.42. Despite being an all-state wrestler in high school, Lawler’s not very active in the takedown department, averaging just 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. He boasts a 66% takedown defense rate and averages 0.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. 

Betting Profile: Bryan Barberena (17-8-0)

Last Five Fights (WWLWL)

Barberena comes into this bout riding a two-fight win streak, and he’s pretty fresh, considering he just fought Matt Brown back in March. It was a split decision victory for the 33-year-old in which he outstruck Brown 111-81. However, he was on the losing end of the takedown count 5-0. Barberena looked decent in the fight and did enough to win, but I would’ve liked to see a bit more out of him against an aging Brown. 

Similar to Lawler, Barberena will likely want to keep this fight upright. He’s averaging just 0.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 25% success rate over his career. The southpaw distributes 5.61 significant strikes per minute at a 49% clip while absorbing 4.83. 

Bottom Line

Lawler looked fantastic in his last fight against Diaz, landing 150 significant strikes over 10:44 of fight time. His cardio was great, and you can tell he was prepped for the fight. While Lawler likely won’t be making a run at a title again at the age of 40, it’s apparent that he hasn’t lost his championship mentality. 

I will back the former champ on the moneyline in this three-round contest against Barberena. Barberena has fought some tough competition over the years, including names like Vincente Luque, Leon Edwards and Coby Covington, but I think he’s far removed from the form he was in back then. I didn’t expect “Bam Bam” to destroy Brown, especially in front of Brown’s hometown crowd of Columbus, but I thought he would win more handily.

That’s why I like Lawler in this spot. If Brown was able to find weaknesses and take Barberena to a split decision, imagine what a former champion in Lawler will be able to do. Look for Lawler to potentially mix in some takedown attempts, as that was a weak spot for Barberena in his last fight. I expect to see a high output from Lawler, and I’m confident he’ll get his hand raised on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Pick: Lawler Moneyline (-120 via DraftKings)

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