UFC on ABC Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez (2022)

Jul 14, 2022 - 10:38 AM

The UFC heads to Long Island, N.Y., this weekend for a day of fights that will get underway early on ESPN+. With the prelim card starting at 11 AM EST, the main card gets underway at 2 PM EST and is headlined by a pair of top-three featherweights in Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez that could very well be a co-main on a pay-per-view.

Let’s take a closer look at both fighters and how this one might go.

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Betting Profile: Brian Ortega (15-2-0)

Last Five Fights (L-W-L-W-W)

A first-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Ortega is one of the best grapplers in this division, filled with killers from top to bottom. Since turning professional in 2010, Ortega has beaten every fighter put in front of him not named Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, two of the best featherweights to ever step into the octagon. In both fights for titles, Ortega had the belt in his grasp (literally) before Volkanovski escaped a late chokehold to grind out a decision at UFC 266 in September.

Entering this fight, Ortega will step into the octagon with no sizeable edges outside a slight one in submission average with 1.19 per 15 minutes (vs. .76)

Betting Profile: Yair Rodriguez (14-3-0)

Last Five Fights (L-W-D-W-L)

Joining the UFC in 2014, Rodriguez picked up wins over the likes of Dan Hooker and BJ Penn before his first professional loss (Frankie Edgar) in 2017. Since then, Rodriguez has won two of four, with a loss to Max Holloway and NC vs. Jeremy Stephens.

As of Saturday, Rodriguez will enter the octagon with slight edges in striking, as the taekwondo specialist has ended two of his past three inside the distance. His 4.65 significant strikes landed per minute are his most notable edge vs. Ortega, who comes into this fight at 4.15.

Bottom Line

With both of these fighters coming into Saturday off of losses, the loser risks falling outside the top five, with the winner conceivably in line for a shot at the title. While Ortega would be wise to take this one to the ground, he should have difficulty taking it there.

Coming into this fight, Rodriguez possesses a 60% takedown defense and will likely force striking that Ortega will be wary of. Look for conservative starts from both fighters as this fight bleeds into the later rounds, following a pattern of their past four combined fights going to a decision.

Best Bet: Total Rounds Over 4.5 (-105 via DraftKings)

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