UFC 277 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich (2022)

Jul 29, 2022 - 12:31 PM

UFC 277 will get underway this Saturday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. This card is stacked with two titles on the line, with Amanda Nunes looking to recapture gold in her rematch against Julianna Pena for the women’s bantamweight belt while Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France battle It out for the interim flyweight title.

Before these two main event fights, we have a heavyweight scrap between Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich. This fight could have significant implications on the seeding of this division, particularly if the 11th-ranked Pavlovich beats the fifth-ranked Lewis.

A few weeks ago, Lewis opened up as a -135 favorite and has since moved all the way to a +115 underdog, despite 56% of the tickets on him. However, big money has been placed on Pavlovich as he only makes up 44% of the bets but 59% of the handle.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this heavyweight bout.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Betting Profile: Derrick Lewis (26-9 Overall / 17-7 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-L)

Losing two of his last three fights, Lewis’ long and storied career may be entering the final stretch. At the same time, those two losses were to the very tough Tai Tuivasa and Ciryl Gane.

That being said, the up-and-coming Pavlovich could certainly be on their level very soon. This scrap will be standing as neither guy likes to go to the mat, so we are probably getting a finish.

The odds that this fight does not go to a decision is a whopping -650. I would argue that these two facts are a disadvantage for Lewis in this specific matchup as he is giving up five inches in reach to Pavlovich.

Not only is Lewis’ reach at a disadvantage, but his cardio is too. Going against a high-volume, a high-accuracy striker like Pavlovich could be overwhelming unless Lewis gets him out of there early – which is definitely a possibility.

When closing as an underdog on the moneyline, Lewis is 2-3 over his last five fights.

Betting Profile: Sergei Pavlovich (15-1 Overall / 3-1 UFC)

Last Four Fights (L-W-W-W)

After a disappointing loss in his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem, Pavlovich has rebounded in a big way with three straight first-round knockouts. While all three wins are impressive, this fight is a massive step up for the surging Pavlovich.

That said, I believe the heavyweight division has another contender on its hands as his combination of output and power is tough to defend against. Pavlovich has closed as the favorite in his four fights in the UFC, hitting at a 75% rate.

Pavlovich’s most significant disadvantage in this contest is his experience, which is a unique way is also an advantage as he is seven years younger than Lewis. This age gap could further the big disparity in output, and Pavlovich may be too overwhelming in this fight.

Bottom Line

The only safe thing to bet on in this fight is that the scorecards will not matter. Obviously, do not lay the -650 juice.

This scrap is undoubtedly a “prove it” opportunity for Pavlovich, and I believe he is ready. Lewis is essentially a divisional gatekeeper at this point in his career. A win for Pavlovich here could launch him into the Tuivasa/Blaydes/Aspinall grouping of the heavyweight division.

With the immense power that each of these men possesses, this fight could go either way, as It just takes one shot. Give me the younger guy with more to prove, better endurance, and riding the momentum of a three-fight win streak.

Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich via 2nd Round KO

Bet: Sergei Pavlovich to Win in Rounds 1-2 (+110)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

The post UFC 277 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.

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